fundamental overview
Gold is now consolidating between key technical levels as traders await new catalysts before choosing a direction. The fundamentals are still against rising prices, so we will either be stuck in a wide range below the January highs or see another decline in the next weeks or months.
Next week is going to be a big one for precious metals. Actually, we will get the US NFP report on Wednesday and US CPI on Friday. The strong data will trigger a sharp reassessment of interest rate expectations and is likely to push gold to new lows. On the other hand, soft data should support the market amid Fed’s rate cut bets.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIME FRAME
gold – daily
On the daily chart, we can see that gold is now consolidating above the trendline as traders await new catalysts for the next major move. If we get another flush into the trendline, we can expect buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally to a new record high. On the other hand, sellers will look for a break lower to extend the bearish bets to 4273 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Time Frame
sleep – 4 hours
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that we have a resistance zone around the 5100 level where we finally got rejection. If the price rallies again, we can expect sellers to step in again with a defined risk above the position’s resistance to a decline into the trendline targeting a breakout. On the other hand, buyers will be looking for plenty of breaks to rally to new all-time highs.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame
sleep – 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a small falling trend line defining bearish momentum on this time frame. Sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to push to new lows, while buyers will look for a break higher to target the 5100 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
upcoming catalyst
Today we’re closing out the week with consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan.
