Bitcoin’s price performance last month was quite disappointing. The flagship cryptocurrency has struggled to consistently break above $70,000 throughout February, with prices only reaching $71,000 before suffering a sharp reversal.
Then, it becomes intuitively clear that this price area could be a key level acting as resistance to Bitcoin’s bullish attempts. Below are some other important levels to watch for in March and what they could potentially mean for the price of Bitcoin.
BTC’s real price is $54,600 – what does it mean
In a QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst Burak Kesmesi highlighted five “cost groups” that could reveal the next move for Bitcoin’s price. For reference, cost clusters are essentially price levels that represent the average acquisition price of an asset (Bitcoin in this case) by different investor groups.
To start with, Kesmesi immediately revealed Bitcoin’s most confirmed support price – the real value – to be around $54,600. The real value is a strong support area as it reflects the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation.
Source: CryptoQuant
Furthermore, real prices have historically served as long-term price support during recessionary phases. As a result, when the price of Bitcoin trades above this level, it is often a sign of existing structural strength, while a break below the actual price is usually a sign of impending doom.
Bitcoin could rise in March – but on one condition
While Bitcoin price may be reflecting its higher time-frame support, it is also true that the world’s leading cryptocurrency will have to fight a series of battles to move forward. According to crypto pundits, four resistance zones await to reject a potential upside recovery.
The first of these fields is the 1 – 4-week real price, which reveals the average price at which recent buyers entered the BTC market. According to the highlighted CryptoQuant data, this cost base is at around the $71,600 level.
When the price of Bitcoin trades below this level, it signals that the latest participants are in serious heat. Therefore, recovery attempts towards this price level will generally face significant resistance, as this group will look to break out at break-even.
The analyst further noted that the short-term holder realized price (STH RP) is around $90,800; This is of concern for investors who have held BTC for less than 155 days. If Bitcoin price manages to overcome clear resistance at this level, it could signal a change in Bitcoin trend from bearish to bullish.
Beyond STH RP, the 365-day simple moving average is at the $98,900 price level; Then, a little further north, the real price for 3-6 months is around $100,800. These metrics reflect the activity of medium-term holders of Bitcoin, showing their actual price and average closing price over the past year.
In the grand scheme of things, Bitcoin is clearly in a bearish phase. Thus, BTC will have to overcome those important resistance levels before March can become a decisive month for market participants. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $63,696, representing a decline of more than 5% in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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