Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $50,000 ahead of Sunday’s weekly close as bulls failed to recover from ten-month lows.
key points:
-
BTC price targets remain bearish as Bitcoin bulls lick their wounds at ten-month lows.
-
CME futures gap may provide some temporary relief in the new week.
-
The research says Bitcoin is still following the path of earlier bearish markets by losing real price support.
BTC Price: “So Far, History Is Repeating”
Data from TradingView shows that BTC price action remains below $80,000 after BTC/USD fell more than 6% a day earlier.
After missing important bullish market support levels, including the real market average of $80,700, Bitcoin left many traders bearish on the coming period.
“$74,400 and $49,180 are two key downside liquidity targets for this bear market,” X Account Cmt_trader forecasts.
Trader Crypto Bullet drew particular attention to the loss of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) – an event that preceded previous bear markets.
$BTC 21 month EMA has been lost
It’s so overdone that you can’t even imagine pic.twitter.com/UFJnoFZmkv
– Crypto Bullet (@CryptoBullet1) 1 February 2026
Following last week’s bull market EMA crossover, traders and analyst Rect Capital agreed that history was in favor of “additional downside continuation.”
“So far, history is repeating, with bulls declining after EMA crossovers,” he told X followers.
“Bitcoin has fallen -17% from $90,000 to $78,000 since the crossover occurred.”
The crossover involves the 21-week and 50-week EMAs, and was last triggered in April 2022.
Meanwhile, hopes for a short-term rally are pinned on the newly opened “gap up” on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.
Often acting as a lower-time frame price “magnet”, the closest gap now awaited near $84,000.
Trader Killa predicted the $84,000 would be filled “in the next few weeks.”
Closed 50% of the short position. The remaining 50% was left open towards the final goal.
We expect to close the CME gap at 84K in the next few weeks. Ideally you want to see BTC retest the lower range. If no reclaim = no safe trigger.
Thanks for playing 💸💸 https://t.co/lmj9mKa52j pic.twitter.com/wrKVJUTBht
– Killa (@KillaXBT) 31 January 2026
Bitcoin at risk of a new “extended bearish phase”
Zooming out, the latest onchain research remained firmly risk-off on longer time frames.
Connected: Bitcoin bear market almost over? Key BTC metrics set for 2022 lows
For onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, spot price trading below the actual price for investors who held BTC between 12 and 18 months was the writing on the wall.
Actual price refers to the overall cost basis at which their BTC was last transferred.
“Historically, when price breaks and sustains below this cost basis, market behavior changes from a general correction to a structural bearish phase, not a short-term uptrend,” contributor CrazyBlock warned in a “QuickTake” blog post.
The research said that the actual price itself was stable – something that was “consolidating its role as overhead resistance.”
“When spot prices remain below stability levels or real costs rise, rallies fail as supply seeks a breakeven exit,” CrazyBlock said.
“From a cycle perspective, the combination of pricing below real costs, negative unrealized profitability and slow balance growth has historically been associated with extended recessionary phases.”
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investing and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
