Options traders in the Bitcoin market are now pricing in an even better chance that the coin will remain below $66,000 by the end of April – a sign of how sharply sentiment has changed since Thursday.
Fear has spread in the options market
The change is clearly visible in one key metric. Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew climbed as much as 15% on Friday, a level that signals traders are paying a sharp premium for protection from downside.
Under normal circumstances, this figure sits between -6% and 6%. Based on data from derivatives platform Deribit, put options – bets that the price will fall – for the April 24 contract at the $66,000 strike were trading at 0.0580 BTC, or about $3,786.
That pricing suggests there is a 50% chance of Bitcoin staying below that level by the end of the month. Fear has been the dominant force in Bitcoin options since mid-January.
It was hit hard by widespread selling on Friday. Bitcoin fell to $65,500, down 7.5% from $71,300 a day earlier. That single move wiped out more than $200 million in leveraged long positions and rendered almost all call options worth $18.5 billion before monthly expiration.
Bitcoin option prices for April 24. Source: Deribit
The bears were in control. There was more than $2 billion of open interest in put options at or above the $69,000 strike, and 95% of call options expired at zero.
Reports indicate that a portion of the decline had little to do with pricing. Some traders did not want to continue building Bitcoin exposure into the weekend, a common pattern when geopolitical risks increase and US markets are about to close.
Source: Alternative.me
Oil at $100 and rising bond yields drive down riskier assets
The pressure on Bitcoin didn’t just come from crypto. West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached $100 per barrel on Friday. The surge is linked to rising tensions in the Middle East as well as estimates of up to $200 billion in additional US military spending.
That combination fueled inflation fears and pushed investors toward safer positions. Five-year US Treasury yields reached 4%, up from 3.70% just three weeks ago – a sharp move by bond market standards. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since September 2025.
Where could Bitcoin go?
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20% so far this year. This difference is wider than the broader macro environment alone can explain.
For now, the options market has an answer to where Bitcoin is headed this April – and it doesn’t get much further than that. With broader bearish pressure building, policy headwinds weakening and traders reluctant to stick around for the weekend, the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Whether Bitcoin holds $66,000 or breaks below that may depend less on the coin itself and more on what happens in Washington and the Middle East before the month is out.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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