Solana’s SOL (SOL) has fallen 38% over the past 30 days, hitting a two-year low of $67 on Friday. Many analysts believe that the downside is not over for the seventh-ranked cryptocurrency, targeting a decline to $30.
key takeaways:
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Solana’s head-and-shoulders pattern targets a SOL price of $50 or lower.
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The MVRV bands point to potential downside, but support at $75 should hold.
Solana targets $42 after bearish confirmation
The price of SOL has already lost more than 72% of its value since the cycle peak in January 2025 at around $295. In doing so, its price confirmed the Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) pattern on multiple time frames.
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Crypto analyst BitcoinCensus has shared a chart in which SOL is validating the H&S pattern, indicating further downside.
“Solana has confirmed the breakout of this macro head and shoulders pattern,” BitcoinCensus said in a Monday post on X.
“The target could be as low as $50 per $SOL.”
“This is a classic head and shoulders pattern with a measured move to $45,” analyst Nexiscripto said of SOL’s two-week chart. But other analysts said the price could go even lower.
The pseudonymous analyst “Shitpostin” said Solana’s price has also formed a “huge head and shoulders” pattern on monthly charts over two years, “with nothing but air to $30.”
Meanwhile, the two-day candle chart shows that SOL price broke below the H&S neckline at $120 on January 30.
The measured target of the H&S pattern, calculated by adding the head height from the breakdown point, is $57, indicating a 32% decline from current levels.
Solana’s MVRV bands give hope for a $75 low
SOL’s price decline last week was capped by support at the lower bound of its MVRV Extreme Divergence pricing band, which is currently at $75.
These bands show when SOL is below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.
Historically, SOL prices have fallen near or even below the lowest MVRV band before hitting bottom.
This includes the March 2022 surge, when the price of SOL surged 87% to $140 in three weeks after testing the minimum MVRV divergence band around $75. A similar rebound had earlier happened in December 2020.
However, Solana’s association with the FTX crash in November 2022 saw a significant divergence below this band, with the price falling by 70% and reaching a low of around $7 in December of that year.
Therefore, a fall of SOL below $75 gives rise to the next phase of correction as seen in 2022, possibly aligning with H&S targets.
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