Bitcoin is stepping into a new era where its movements can no longer be explained by crypto-native events. Instead, BTC has become increasingly aligned with the global business cycle, reacting to changes in institutional Positioning. As the market matures, BTC behaves less like a speculative externality and more like a macro-sensitive asset that rises and falls with the macroeconomic pulse.
Liquidity cycles drive Bitcoin more than crypto narratives
The connection between business cycles and Bitcoin has never been clearer, and the latest chart makes the connection harder to ignore. According According to X, a renowned crypto news analyst on CryptoSarus, this chart shows BTC price action with the broader macro business cycle, and the alignment is almost striking.
Currently, BTC seems to be approaching a cycle floor This represents the last macro business cycle low. What makes this setup attractive is the record-long pre-parabolic phase in BTC history. If this pattern continues, the next major expansion phase may be closer than expected.
The market is entering a significant inflection point. Co-founder of Glassnode, Swissblock, and SenseAG, Negentropic, said Withdrawals to the Treasury General Account (TGA) began on November 14 and historically, its liquidity flows are about a week ahead of Bitcoin. During the 2019 government shutdown, BTC bottomed out and began to recover within 12 days as liquidity returned to normal.
This recent expansion has been the most challenging phase of liquidity squeezeAnd its ultimate impact has been felt this week. The government’s reopening of an estimated $150 billion of additional TGA liquidity is providing a meaningful tailwind as it enters the markets. With the stagnation in economic data during the government shutdown, revaluation has been hit by uncertainty in the near term.
Meanwhile, Nvidia’s earnings next week will give the next clear indication risk“The worst is probably behind us and the system is improving, Patience is key,” Negentropic said,
Government liquidity injection could neutralize recession fears
Brian Rose is also the founder and host of LondonRealTV … Offered An insight into the current market order, stating that the Federal Reserve has officially announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT). at the same time, US government Reopening more than $100 billion of frozen liquidity and bringing it directly back into the system. According to Brian, BTC sentiment is the worst it has been seen in years.
In the short term, there are fears over bearish jobs data, while in the medium term, there are real catalysts for liquidity. However, as long as nothing is breaking, the market can handle bad data. It’s a strange mix of despair and fresh money. Historically, combined with extreme pessimism liquidity The injection is exactly the setup from where the rallies start.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from tradingview.com
editorial process Focused on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate and unbiased content for Bitcoinists. We adhere to strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and experienced editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance and value of our content to our readers.
