Mirroring the Q2 2025 breakout setup, Bitcoin (BTC) is now eyeing a potential rally towards the $86,000-$90,000 range over the next few weeks.
The bullish outlook is supported by strong Bitcoin whale activity and large BTC inflows into exchanges, with $5 billion lost over the past two months.
BTC support cluster at $70,000 creates breakout pressure
Bitcoin reached a weekly high of $73,255 on Friday after testing the $72,000 level at the beginning of the week, with the price hovering between $70,000 and $72,000 over the past four days. The higher price range is showing more stability for BTC compared to March, when BTC quickly corrected after reaching key levels.
The 30-day rolling volume-weighted average price (VWAP), which indicates where the most recent trading activity has occurred, and the 50-day moving average have converged beneath the price, forming a dynamic support base.
Currently, the $76,000 level represents the upper limit of the 64-day sideways leg. The push above this level aligns with a falling trend line formed after October’s high near $126,000.
A breakout from this trend could signal a major reversal and remove the psychological barrier that has put a halt to rallies over the past few months.
In Q2 2025, a similar setup formed after a prolonged compression below the moving average. Once the price crossed the falling trend line, it rapidly expanded into the next supply zone.
The current structure reflects that order, with liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000. When a bearish trend line comes in, it signals a clear path for price extension.
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btc whale flow signal supply absorption
Crypto analyst Amr Taha reported that 30-day Bitcoin inflows from whales to exchanges dropped to $2.96 billion, a reading of less than $3 billion for the first time since June 2025.
Low inflows reduce immediate sell-side pressure on exchanges. For context, whale inflows into exchanges amounted to $8 billion in February.
At the same time, long-term holders realized that cap change reached $49 billion on April 9, indicating renewed accumulation.
Taha noted the transfer of supply from weak to strong hands in these metrics. The divergence highlights steady absorption rather than aggressive selling.
Additionally, whale-sized orders of $1 million to $10 million pushed spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) above $600 million on April 9, while market analyst CW pointed to renewed buying from other whale groups as well.
This activity coincides with price stabilization above $70,000. The $76,000 level now serves as a trigger zone, with a visible, concentrated liquidity zone in the range of $86,000 to $90,000.
Related: Bitcoin reaches $73,000 as US CPI data shows 60-year record gas price rise
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