September Arabica Coffee (KCU25) closed on Wednesday +4.45 ( +1.41%), and September Ice Robusta Coffee (RMU25) +206 ( +5.53%) was closed.
On Tuesday, coffee prices in Brazil were ralled on light frost earlier this week in Brazil. Initial assessment suggests that the damage is reduced.
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Meanwhile, after selling the standing in May -July, and Wednesday’s news that Brazil’s July Robusta export -49% Y/Y, after sinking -SEP Robusta Coffee increased to a height of 2 months, and was operated by Wednesday’s news.
Coffee prices have seen strength since last Wednesday when the Brazilian trade ministry reported that the uncontrolled coffee exports of Brazil fell from -20.4% Y/Y to 161,000 MT. According to the exporting group Cecafe, in July, Brazil’s green coffee exports fell to 28% y/y to 2.4 million bags. CECAfe said that July Arabica’s export -21% y/y fell, while Robusta export -49% y/y fell. A total of July coffee exports -28% fell to 2.7 million bags. Coffee shipment -21% fell to 22.2 million bags during public publication.
The decline in ice coffee inventions is supporting Arab prices. Ice-monitoring Arabica inventories fell at a low of 736,411 bags of 1.25 years on Wednesday. In addition, snow Robusta coffee inventory fell at a 2-week-level low on Wednesday of 6,928 lots, below the 1-year high of the 7,029 lots posted on 28 July.
The coffee market is awaiting clarity on American tariff policies, as President Trump has so far exempted coffee from his 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. Tariffs can damage Brazil’s coffee sales to America and promote Brazilian coffee inventions.
Last week, up-to-auspicious rainfall in Brazil reduced the concerns of dryness and is a negative factor for coffee prices. Somar Meporologia reported on Monday that the Brazilian’s largest Arab Coffee-Uugne region, Minas Gerace received 4.8 mm of rain during the week ended August 9, or 109%of the historic average.
The ongoing Brazilian coffee crop is a slowdown for coffee prices. Safras and Markado said last Friday that Brazil’s total 2025/26 coffee harvest was 94% until 6 August, ahead of comparable level of 92% last year. Breakdown revealed that 99% of Robusta Harvest and 91% of the Arabian Harvest was completed by 6 August. In the relevant news, Brazil’s COXPE coffee cum on Wednesday announced that the crop among its members was 80.4% as August 8. Kuxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exposure group.
In a recession factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported last Wednesday that Global June Coffee Exports +7.3% Y/Y rose to 11.69 million bags. However, cumulative October -June coffee exports were down on 104.14 million bags -0.2% y/y down.
Coffee prices have retreated in the last three months on the approach for abundant coffee supply. Last month, Arabica Coffee reduced 8 months low and Robusta reduced the closest flow of 1.25-year. On June 25, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production +0.5% y/y would increase by 65 million bags and Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will increase from 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags to increase to 4 years high levels. Brazilian Arabica is the world’s largest producer of coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robsta coffee.
Due to drought, 1.472 MMT from -20% y/y became the smallest crop in four years from -20% y/y at Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 crop year. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports -from 17.1% y/y to 1.35 mmt. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Production Estimate to 26.5 million bags below December 12 from December 28 million. In contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office said on Tuesday that Vietnam’s Jan-Jul was 2025 coffee exports +6.9% y/y to 1.05 mmt.
The bipolar report of the USDA released on 25 June was a recession for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that world coffee production +2.5% y/y will increase to 178.68 million bags in 2025/26, a decrease in billion production -1.7% will increase by 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in 81.658 million bags. The USDA FAS estimates that the final stock of 2025/26 will climb on a 21.752 million bags in 2024/25 to +4.9% to 22.819 million bags.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficit -8.5 million bags, which exceeds the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and lacks fifth consecutive year.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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