May Arabica Coffee (KCK25) closed -0.55 (-0.15%) on Friday, and May Ice Robusta Coffee (RMK25) -46 (-0.86%) was closed.
Coffee prices rose early on Friday and reduced to 1 month against the dollar after Brazil’s real (^USDBRL). In real this week, weakness has given rise to prolonged liquidation in coffee futures and dropped coffee prices for 1 month on Wednesday. Weak real Brazilian coffee encourages the sale of exports by producers.
Commodity Bulletin: From crude oil to coffee, it is equally for professionals and miscreants of the free newspaper industry
Coffee prices are supported after Monday’s report in Brazil after Monday’s report, which was reported on Monday that Brazil’s biggest Arabica Coffee Meen Gerace received 11.4 mm of rain last week, or 24%of the historic average. Brazil is the world’s largest Arab Coffee Growing Country.
The signs of shrinking supply after snow-manner Robusta Coffee Inventors on the positive side fell by 2 months less of 4,247 lots by Friday. In addition, ice-monitoring arabica coffee inventories were reduced by 9–1/4 months on 758,514 bags last Tuesday, although they have since recovered for 1 week high 809,128 bags since then.
In a rapid factor, an increased percentage of Brazilian coffee crop has already been sold compared to previous years, meaning that there is still less supply available to sell. Safras and Markado said last Monday that producers sold 88% of Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee harvest as of February 11, faster than 79% and 5-year average 82% compared to last year’s comparable year-Arli figures. Meanwhile, the sales of 2025/26 crops have slowed down on 13% crop, well behind a 4 -year average of 22%, which suggests the reduction of new supply and reluctance of producers for selling.
Constant supply fears have supported the prices of coffee. Cecafe reported on 12 February that Brazil’s January green coffee exports -1.6% y/y fell to 3.98 million bags. In addition, on January 28, Brazil’s official crop forecast agency Conb, estimating that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y/y, would fall at a 3 -year low of 51.81 million bags. Conb cut the estimate of its 2024 Brazil Coffee crop in a September -1% to 54.2 million bags from the September estimate of 54.8 million bags.
Last year, the effect of dried El Nino weather may cause long -term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Rainfall in Brazil has been below the average continuously since last April, damaging coffee trees during all important flowering phase and reduce the possibilities for Brazil’s 2025/26 billion coffee crops. According to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden, Brazil has been facing the most dry weather since 1981. In addition, the world’s second largest Arabia producer Columbia, gradually recovering from El Nino-Spurade Drought last year.
Robusta coffee prices decrease with low Robusta production. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 crop year declined to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. On 31 May, the USDA FAS estimated that Robusta coffee production of Vietnam in the new marketing year of 2024/25 would be sipped slightly from 28 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said on January 10 that 2024 Vietnam coffee export -17.1% y/y fell to 1.35 mmt. In contrast, on 3 December, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association extended its 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Productions to 28 million bags from October 27 million bags.
The news of large global coffee exports is a slowdown for prices. Conb said on 4 February that Brazil’s 2024 coffee exports +28.8% Y/Y increased a record 50.5 million bags. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said on 6 February that Vietnam’s mass coffee exports +increased from 6.3% meter/meter to 134,000 meters. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robusta coffee. However, ICO reported on 6 February that Dec Global Coffee Exports -10.73 million bags fell at 12.4% y/y, and Oct -DEC global coffee exports fell 32.25 million bags at –0.8% y/y.
On December 18, USDA’s biennial report was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that world coffee production +4.0% y/y will increase to 174.855 million bags in 2024/25, +1.5% increase in arabica production will increase by 97.845 million bags and Robusta production in 77.01 million bags will increase by +7.5%. The USDA FAS predicts that at the end of 2024/25, the stock will fall from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24 to a 25 -year low of a 25 -year low of 20.867 million bags. Separate, on November 22, the USDA FAS placed Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production below the previous forecast of 69.9 mm at 66.4 mm. The USDA FAS projected Brazilian coffee inventions on 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, -26% y/y down.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, on December 17, Volcafe cut its 2025/26 Brazil Arabica Coffee Productions in 34.4 million bags, after a crop tour, the severity of an expanded drought in Brazil was detected in Brazil by a September estimate after a crop tour. Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficiency -8.5 million bag, which is more than a -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth year of the fifth consecutive year is the fifth year.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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