fundamental overview
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday after Trump confirmed in a Truth Social post, originally reported by WSJ, that he would be willing to end the war with Iran without the condition of opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Damage increased further later in the day when the Iranian President said he was ready to end the war but wanted guarantees.
Prices jumped today as Iranian parliament sources reportedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen, they have not had any talks with the US and they will not stop it. We’ve been getting mixed messages for a few weeks, but now there’s strong evidence that the US and Iran are indeed talking, even if indirectly.
Traders will continue to keep a close eye on US-Iran headlines and Trump’s Truth Social account as the end of the war could trigger a strong selloff in oil, while further gains could take us to new highs. Trump is expected to address the nation today at 21:00 ET/01:00 GMT, giving an “important” update on Iran.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil – Daily Time Frame
WTI Crude Oil – Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is still trading above the key 93.00 area. If the price completely returns to the zone, we can expect buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally to new highs. On the other hand, sellers will look for a break to pile up for a drop to the next 78.00 support.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil – 4 Hour Time Frame
WTI Crude Oil – 4 Hour
On the 4-hour chart, we can see the price bouncing off the smaller trendline as buyers have stepped in with a defined risk below it to move to new highs. Sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting the 93.00 zone and a break below the key trendline. We will likely find buyers there stepping in in the event of another rally.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil – 1 Hour Time Frame
WTI Crude Oil – 1 Hour
On the 1-hour chart, we have a small falling trend line defining the recent decline. We can expect sellers to rely on the trendline to make new lows, while buyers will look for a break to take bullish bets to new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
upcoming catalyst
Today we have US ADP, US Retail Sales and US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we’ll get the latest US jobless claims data. On Friday, we’ll conclude the week with the US NFP report. Please note that Trump is addressing the nation today at 21:00 ET/01:00 GMT, giving an “important” update on Iran.
