October NY World Sugar #11 (SBV25) closed on Thursday +0.33 ( +2.03%), and October London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWV25) +8.80 ( +1.87%) was closed.
On Thursday, sugar prices have increased rapidly, as it is speculated that there is a pickup in the demand for slide in 4 years of climbing in sugar prices. China’s June Chinese imports increased from 1,435% to 420,000 mounts. In addition, President Trump said last Wednesday that Coca-Cola agreed to use sugarcane sugar in coke drinks sold in the US instead of high-fructose corn syrup, which may currently increase US sugar consumption from 11 MMT to +4.4% to 11.5 mm according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
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On Wednesday, sugar prices fell due to speculation that India could increase its Chinese exports due to a 3-week fall. Bloomberg said on Monday that the country may allow local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which begins in October, as abundant monsoon rains can produce a bumper sugar crop. The Meteorological Department of India said on Monday that the cumulative monsoon rains in India are 6% above normal till July 21.
The approach to high sugar production in Brazil is a slowdown for sugar prices. Detgro said on Monday that the dry weather in Brazil has encouraged the country’s sugar mills to crush their sugarcane, which bends more sugarcane crush towards more profitable sugar production rather than ethanol. According to Kovirig, Brazilian sugar mills are expected to crush 54% of the sugarcane available in the first half of this month, possibly the possibility of adding 3.2 mm sugar to the market.
The approach to high sugar production in India is the world’s second largest producer, recession for prices. On 2 June, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factory estimated that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb on +19% y/y to 35 mmt, citing the large -planned sugarcane. According to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), it will follow a fall of -17.5% y/y at a 5 -year low of 26.2 mm in India’s sugar production in 2024/25. In addition, ISMA said on 7 July that India’s sugar production -17% y/y fell to 25.74 mmt during October 1 -May 15.
Sugar prices have retreated in the last three months, NY Sugar has come down to 4.25 years earlier this month and London Sugar is slipping at a low of 4 years, which is inspired by Chinese surplus expectations in the 2025/26 season. On 30 June, the Commodity Treder Czarnikow estimated the 7.5 MMT Global Sugar Surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On 22 May, in its bipolar report, the USDA estimated that the global 2025/26 sugar production +4.7% y/y will increase to a record 189.318 mmt, up to 41.188 mmt, 7.5% y/y with global Chinese termination.
Sugar prices also support low sugar production in Brazil. Unika said last Monday that the 2025/26 Brazilian Center -South Sugar Production -14.3% Y/Y fell from Y/Y to 12.249 mmt through June. Last month, Brazil’s official crop forecast agency Conb said 2024/25 Brazil fell to 44.4% y/y to 44.118 mmt, cite a low sugarcane yield due to drought and excessive heat.
The approach to high sugar production in Thailand is a slowdown for sugar prices. On 2 May, the office of the sugarcane and sugar board of Thailand reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production increased to 14% y/y 10.00 mm. Thailand is the third largest Chinese producer in the world and the second largest exporter of sugar.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global Chinese deficit forecast for 9 -year highest -5.47 MMT from the February forecast of 4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market after the 2023/24 global Chinese surplus of 1.31 mmt. The ISO cut its 2024/25 global Chinese production forecast to 174.8 mm from February 175.5 mm.
In its bi-annual report released on 22 May by the USDA, it was estimated that the global 2025/26 sugar production +4.7% Y/Y will climb a record 189.318 mmt and the global 2025/26 human sugar consumption will increase +1.4% y/y record 177.921 mmt. The USDA also estimated that 2025/26 Global Sugar Ending Stock +7.5% Y/Y to climb 41.188 mmt. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 Chinese production would increase +2.3% y/y by a record 44.7mm FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase +25% y/y/y to 35.3 mm favorable monsoon rains due to rain and increased sugar. The FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 Chinese production would climb from +2% y/y to 10.3 mmt.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
The idea and opinion expressed here are the idea and opinion of the author and not necessarily Nasdac, Inc.
