- The euro retreats from the weekly high, and the US dollar raises on speculation that Governor Waller may be the next fed chair.
- Fed Blast warned about the impact of the tariff and the hopes of cutting the September rate cooled down.
- EUR/USD received resistance at 1.1700 and is less correct.
The EUR/USD pair slides above a week’s height to 1.1700, trading at 1.1640 before the US session on Friday, as the US dollar jumps on the back of the news, mentioning Christopher Waller as a top candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Bloomberg said on Thursday that US President Donald Trump’s team member Fed was impressed after a meeting with Governor Christopher Waller, although he had not yet met the President.
Waller was appointed by Trump during his first term. She has recently been a notorious voice for low interest rates, but she is a highly respected person in financial circles, and does not expect to damage the credibility of the central bank by his appointment.
Meanwhile, the name of Stephen Meeran, president of the council of economic advisors, seems to be like Trump’s favorite candidate, which is to serve the central bank’s board on a seat vacated by Governor Adriana Kugler by January. Miran will definitely have a vote in the meetings of September, October and December, and his choice is seen as a maneuver to carry forward the wishes of Trump of an easy monetary policy.
On the macroeconomic front, data released on Thursday revealed that the US unemployed claims had increased above expectations last week. Atlanta Fed Chairman Rafael Bstic acknowledged rising risks for the US labor market, but said it is committed to cut rates very soon in September.
Euro price today
The table below shows a percentage change of euro against major currencies listed today. The euro was the strongest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | Gbp | JPY | Paaji | Worship | Aristocratic federal | Chef | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.37% | -0.11% | 0.03% | -0.06% | 0.27% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.23% | 0.12% | -0.37% | -0.23% | -0.25% | -0.01% | |
| Gbp | -0.03% | 0.23% | 0.36% | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.37% | -0.12% | -0.36% | -0.46% | -0.40% | -0.39% | -0.07% | |
| Paaji | 0.11% | 0.37% | 0.14% | 0.46% | 0.16% | 0.22% | 0.34% | |
| Worship | -0.03% | 0.23% | 0.09% | 0.40% | -0.16% | 0.07% | 0.17% | |
| Aristocratic federal | 0.06% | 0.25% | -0.11% | 0.39% | -0.22% | -0.07% | 0.18% | |
| Chef | -0.27% | 0.01% | -0.15% | 0.07% | -0.34% | -0.17% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows a percentage change of major currencies against each other. The base posture is picked up from the left column, while the quotation posture is raised from the top line. For example, if you choose the euro from the left column and transfer to the US dollar with the horizontal line, the percentage change in the box will represent EUR (Aadhaar)/USD (quotes).
Daily Digest Market Movers: US dollar upset attempt is limited with fed on focus
- The dollar has tickled the climb, but investors are careful at making a large US dollar bets amid uncertainty about the next Fed head and pointing to the softening of the labor market amid recent figures. Which adds pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.
- According to data from the US Labor Department, the US unemployed claims increased to 226,000 in the last week of July. These figures are more than 221,000 predicted by market analysts after 218,000 readings in the last week.
- In addition, on Thursday, the Q2 nonform productivity data showed a weak-to-first 2.4% increase, while the unit labor cost increased by 1.6%, slightly above the expected of 1.5%, but still medium.
- Fed’s bustick organized a vigilant tone in a virtual panel organized by the Florida Institute of CFO, warning of the inflation effect of tariff and cutting only one rate in the second half of 2025.
- Trump is reported to have met Russian President Putin next week, feeding hopes of a peace deal in Ukraine, which has provided additional assistance to the euros in the last few sessions.
- The calendar is diluted on Friday with only one speech by Alberto Mustham, the chairman of St. Louis Fed, which is noticeable during the US session.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls meets resistance at 1.1700
EUR/USD found resistance to 1.1700 on Thursday before trimming some benefits, but still on track for a weekly benefit. The 4-hour relative power index (RSI) is decreasing, but still within the level of boom, while the MACD is crossing the bottom of the signal line, suggests another improvement on Friday.
Support at 1.1595–1.1610 region (lower, 3 August and 5 high levels of Thursday) is expected to defend the immediate rapid tendency. In addition, the next target will be at around 1.1530 on August 5 and July 31 at 1.1460.
On the contrary, the area between 1.1700–1.1710, where 78.6% Fibonacci Retress of Late-Off Retrais is found on 23 July and 25 July, and trendline resistance is now at 1.1745, there is a possibility of creating a significant challenge for the bull. In addition, the height of 24 July at 1.1790 will come into the focus.
Euro sub -procurement
Euro 19 is the currency for the countries of the European Union that belong to Eurozone. This is the second most trading currency in the world behind the US dollar. In 2022, it was responsible for 31% of all forex transactions, with the average daily turnover $ 2.2 trillion more than a day. EUR/USD is the world’s heaviest business currency pair, which is accounting for all transactions estimated from all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
Frankfurt is the Reserve Bank for European Central Bank (ECB), Eurozone in Germany. The ECB determines interest rates and manages monetary policy. The primary mandate of ECB is to maintain value stability, which means to either control inflation or stimulate growth. Its primary tool is to increase or reduce interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or compared to high rates – usually will benefit the euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council takes the monetary policy decision in the meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by Eurozone national banks and heads of six permanent members, including ECB President, Christine Lagard.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the harmonious index of consumer value (HICP), is an important economical for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if above 2% target of ECB, it binds the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it under control. Relatively high interest rates will usually benefit the euro than its counterparts, as it makes the region more attractive as a place to park its money for global investors.
The data releases the health of the economy and can affect the euro. Indicators like GDP, manufacturing and services PMI, employment and consumer spirit survey can all affect the direction of single currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, but it can also encourage ECB to keep interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if the economic data is weak, the euro is likely to fall. Economic data is particularly important for the four largest economies in the Euro region (Germany, France, Italy and Spain), as they are 75% of the Eurozone economy.
Another important data release for the euro is the business balance. Measure the difference between what this indicator earns from its exports and what spends on imports over a certain period. If a country makes excessive demand after exports, its currency will receive purely value from the additional demand made from foreign buyers to buy these goods. Therefore, a positive pure business balance strengthens a posture and contrast to a negative balance.
