- EUR/USD 0.36%, was set to end the week’s flat after delay in military action against Trump.
- Waller calls for the July cut with Fed Report and Barkin’s cautious stance.
- The European Union -US trade deal is in danger near the time limit of July 9, reduces the opposite capacity.
The Euro fixes some grounds against the US dollar on Friday and is almost ready to level the week. risk appetite It is deteriorated. This is happening despite a delay in a military intervention in the Israeli -Iran struggle despite US President Donald Trump. At the time of writing, EUR/USD Trade at 1.1534, up to 0.36%.
Market hunger has become negative due to American trade policies, restricting passers with the interests of production in China, as a top American official sought to cancel the waves, which was sent to the major American indices. Meanwhile, Trump underlined the shared currency, delaying a possible attack for two weeks, the decision to support diplomacy when fighting. Nevertheless, Iran said that it would not talk while Israel continued enmity.
Another incident that promoted the euro federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller announced that he supports a rate cut in July. In contrast, the Fed Monetary Policy Report suggested that the current policy is well deployed amid uncertainty of external shocks, while Richmond Fed Chairman Thomas Barkin, Thomas Barkin, took the side of and patience before reducing the rates.
Despite this, EUR/USD can be pressurized due to failure to reach a trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and. United StatesThe possibility of a deal in the form of clock tick is decreasing till the time limit of July 9.
On the data front, the European Union revealed that the European Union Consumer Confidence Index disappointed investors, although the traders shut down poor reading and extended EUR/USD to higher.
Euro price this week
The table below shows a percentage change of Euro against major currencies listed this week. The euro was the strongest against the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | Gbp | JPY | Paaji | Worship | Aristocratic federal | Chef | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.18% | 0.88% | 1.05% | 1.17% | 0.53% | 0.88% | 0.80% | |
| EUR | -0.18% | 0.59% | 0.86% | 1.00% | 0.49% | 0.71% | 0.62% | |
| Gbp | -0.88% | -0.59% | 0.29% | 0.41% | -0.11% | 0.12% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -1.05% | -0.86% | -0.29% | 0.11% | -0.82% | -0.54% | -0.66% | |
| Paaji | -1.17% | -1.00% | -0.41% | -0.11% | -0.56% | -0.29% | -0.37% | |
| Worship | -0.53% | -0.49% | 0.11% | 0.82% | 0.56% | 0.23% | 0.14% | |
| Aristocratic federal | -0.88% | -0.71% | -0.12% | 0.54% | 0.29% | -0.23% | -0.08% | |
| Chef | -0.80% | -0.62% | -0.04% | 0.66% | 0.37% | -0.14% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows a percentage change of major currencies against each other. The base posture is picked up from the left column, while the quotation posture is raised from the top line. For example, if you choose the euro from the left column and transfer to the US dollar with the horizontal line, the percentage change in the box will represent EUR (Aadhaar)/USD (quotes).
Daily digest market mover
- Geopolitics will continue to take pricing action, which has further benefited the appreciation of the US dollar. Therefore, a risk-closed environment is most likely to push the EUR/USD downwards, even if the “Sell America” is intact.
- The latest data in the United States indicated a cooling economy, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was unchanged from May in June, from May, but there was a decrease in expectations for more minor contractions of -1 -1 -1.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the bank is in weight-and-C mode, saying that the policy is moderately restrictive. He said that as long as the labor market remains solid and inflation cools down, it is “to do the right thing”.
- During the week, Fed unchanged rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Fed officials updated their economic estimates, dropping the approach to 2025 GDP development from 1.7% to 1.4% in March. The forecast of the unemployment rate was revised from 4.4% to 4.5%, while the core PCE inflation projection from 2.8% to 3.1%.
- In June, the European Union consumer’s confidence fell to -15.3, which was worse than the expected -14.5 improvement.
- Financial market players do not expect that ECB will reduce its deposit rate from 25 basis points (BPS) in July monetary policy meeting.
Euro Technical approach: EUR/USD climbs above 1.1500, Bulls target 1.1550
From a technical point of view, EUR/USD uptrend is resumed. Price action suggests that a “morning star” three-kandal chart pattern implies that buyers are accumulated, ready to drive the exchange rate more. Further confirmation is provided by the relative power index (RSI), which is targeting upwards after stalling for two days.
Therefore, EUR/USD will be the first resistance 1.1550. A violation of the latter will expose 1.1600, followed by YTD high of 1.1631. In contrast, there is a way to test a daily off 1.1450 below 1.1500. The next important support will be the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1438, followed by 1.1400.
ECB FAQ
Frankfurt is the Reserve Bank for European Central Bank (ECB), Eurozone in Germany. The ECB determines interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain value stability, which means putting inflation at about 2%. To achieve this, its primary tool is to increase or reduce interest rates. The relatively high interest rate will usually result in a strong euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council takes the monetary policy decision in the meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by Eurozone national banks and heads of six permanent members, including ECB President, Christine Lagard.
In extreme conditions, the European Central Bank can implement a policy equipment with quantitatively. Qui is the process by which ECB prints the euro and usually uses them to buy government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. Qi usually results in a weak euro. Qi is one of the last measures when reducing only interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. ECB used it during the great financial crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation was forced to force, as well as during the Kovid epidemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the opposite of Qi. This is done after Qi when an economic reform is going on and inflation starts increasing. While in QE, the European Central Bank (ECB) buys government and corporate bonds from financial institutions, to provide them liquidity, ECB stops buying more bonds in QT, and already stops establishing principal maturity on those bonds. It is usually positive (or speed) for the euro.
