Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting reinforce the idea that the Fed remains firmly in a wait-and-see stance, but with a growing recognition that risks are becoming more balanced.
Policymakers broadly agree that keeping rates steady is the right decision, with almost all participants supporting no change in March. At the same time, many believe that policy is already within the potential range of neutrality, suggesting that the level of further tightening remains relatively high.
The Fed is increasingly making its response two-pronged. On the one hand, many officials still expect rates to be lowered if inflation continues to decline as projected. But that confidence is far from unconditional.
Many policymakers are already pushing back the timing of potential rate cuts, reflecting concerns that inflation may remain more persistent than expected. In fact, a large majority flagged the risk that price pressures could remain elevated for longer, especially if higher oil prices hit more broadly.
At the same time, the growth outlook has softened a bit compared to the beginning of the year, and the Fed is clearly paying close attention to downside risks in the labor market. Some participants warned that prolonged geopolitical shocks could impact hiring and potentially justify a rate cut.
Uncertainty around the Middle East remains a major variable. Most officials acknowledged it is still too early to assess the full economic impact, but see risks rising on both sides of the mandate.
all together
The Fed is sticking to its position, but the story is developing.
Rates are likely to remain high for a long time, but the committee is now openly acknowledging that the path forward could go either way.
The terms of the cut remain high, but the Fed is no longer ruling out a change if growth starts to decline.
market reaction
The greenback is still on the backfoot, although it has managed to rise above earlier lows. As mentioned, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around the 99.00 level after declining towards its important 200-day SMA near 98.50. Lower US Treasury yields also come alongside daily declines in the greenback as investors continue to assess the two-week US-Iran ceasefire.
US dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed today. The US dollar was the strongest against the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | gbp | JPY | scurvy | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.70% | -0.95% | -0.73% | -0.32% | -1.15% | -1.69% | -0.90% | |
| EUR | 0.70% | -0.26% | -0.06% | 0.38% | -0.44% | -1.02% | -0.21% | |
| gbp | 0.95% | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.64% | -0.16% | -0.74% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.73% | 0.06% | -0.21% | 0.43% | -0.37% | -0.93% | -0.15% | |
| scurvy | 0.32% | -0.38% | -0.64% | -0.43% | -0.80% | -1.35% | -0.58% | |
| AUD | 1.15% | 0.44% | 0.16% | 0.37% | 0.80% | -0.57% | 0.21% | |
| NZD | 1.69% | 1.02% | 0.74% | 0.93% | 1.35% | 0.57% | 0.79% | |
| CHF | 0.90% | 0.21% | -0.05% | 0.15% | 0.58% | -0.21% | -0.79% |
The heat map shows the percentage change of major currencies against each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select US Dollar from the left column and move to Japanese Yen along the horizontal line, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview fomc minutes Meeting March 17-18 at 13:15 GMT.
- Details from the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting are due on Wednesday.
- Investors are expected to closely follow details of the latest Hawkish hold.
- The market is not seeing one or no interest rate cuts this year.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish its minutes of its March 18 meeting on Wednesday. This release should be less about the decision and more about the officials’ “in no rush to cut” story.
Let’s recall that the Fed matched the consensus last month, leaving its fed funds target range (FFTR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although both the statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference showed a subtly hawkish tilt.
In fact, economic growth looks healthy; The labor market appears to be cooling somewhat, though slower than many policymakers expected; And inflation continues to rise…in fact, even higher. And inflation prospects are not very good. In fact, allow us to forget about tariffs for a moment. The continued surge in crude oil prices in response to the Middle East war and its impact on refined products should further boost the energy component of inflation, ultimately strengthening the views of those who advocate a “tighter for longer” policy.
The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a higher inflation path to 2026 and a slightly higher longer-term rate, all advocating a policy stance that may need to remain restrictive for longer than before.
That said, the minutes should highlight how widespread this view is within the Committee. If we look at the latest dot plots, they still reveal a meaningful split, with some officials saying there will be no rate cuts this year and one rate setter even hinting at a possible rate hike in 2027. Market participants will be watching this closely to see if this is a genuine shift in the center of gravity or simply some more harsh opinion.
At his usual press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed is not prepared to ignore existing price pressures without confirmation of the return of some disinflationary pressure, especially when it comes to the cost of goods. Powell also stressed that further tightening is not the original scenario, meaning policy is a two-pronged, but clearly unequal stance, with the bar for holding much higher than the bar for lowering.
What to watch in minutes
There will probably be three main areas of focus.
First, how worried policymakers are about high levels of inflation, especially if they view energy and tariff-related shocks as transitory or more permanent.
Second, how confident are people that the deflation process will work. Any phrase that questions deflation of products or inflation of services will support the idea that rates will remain high for a long time.
Third, the balance of risks within the committee. If the minutes show that members are more concerned about inflation than growth, it would support what Powell said about imbalances.
When will the FOMC minutes be released and how could they impact the US dollar?
The FOMC will release the minutes of its March 17-18 policy meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.
FX Takeaway
Minutes probably won’t change the game for the US dollar (USD) unless their tone becomes truly surprising. A generally dovish assessment that confirms patience and limited willingness to cut should keep US Treasury yields steady and prop up the greenback.
Conversely, if there are any signs that more members are concerned about threats to growth or the job environment, the US dollar will be at risk. If that doesn’t happen, the basic assumption is still that the Fed will continue in ‘wait and see’ mode, and policy will remain tight for longer than the market expects.
all together
The minutes should reinforce the idea that the Fed is not simply stalling; It is deliberately holding its own. Unless there is a clear shift towards growth concerns, the message remains unchanged, rates remain high for a long time, and the level of cuts remains firmly elevated.
Fed FAQ
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and to promote full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is to adjust interest rates. When prices are rising too fast and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, which increases borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a strengthening of the US dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the unemployment rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which has an impact on the greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. Twelve Fed officials participate in the FOMC – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional reserve bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy called quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit into a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during a crisis or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the great financial crisis in 2008. This involves the Fed printing more dollars and using them to buy higher grade bonds from financial institutions. QE generally weakens the US dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the opposite process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops purchasing bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from maturing bonds to purchase new bonds. This is generally positive for the value of the US dollar.
economic indicators
Fed interest rate decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and decides on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: keep inflation at 2%, and maintain full employment. Its main tool to achieve this is to set interest rates – at which it lends to banks and the banks lend to each other. If he decides to hike rates, the US dollar (USD) strengthens as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it weakens the USD as capital moves to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectations of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectations of lower future rates).
Read more.
Last Release:
Wed March 18, 2026 18:00
frequency:
irregular
Real:
3.75%
Consensus:
3.75%
Of earlier:
3.75%
Source:
federal Reserve
