GBP/USD extended its losses for a second straight day, falling 0.12% after a lackluster US nonfarm payrolls report that could refocus the Federal Reserve on fighting high inflation that has remained above target for five years. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3205.
Strong payrolls and strong yields keep sterling on the back foot
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the economy created more than 178K jobs in March, crushing the forecast of 60K. Despite the positive readings, the February print was revised down to -133K, but on a positive note, the unemployment rate also fell to 4.3% from 4.4%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US currency’s performance against six peers, is up as much as 0.12% and above the 100.00 level amid growing speculation that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold until the Middle East conflict prolongs.
Recently, the US S&P Global Services PMI contracted in March for the first time since January 23, falling to 49.8 from 51.7 in February. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote: “PMI survey data suggests the U.S. economy is faltering under the pressure of rising prices and rising uncertainty, as the war in the Middle East has heightened existing concerns regarding other policy decisions in recent months, particularly regarding tariffs.”
Williamson commented that the stagflation environment of no growth and rising prices is a challenge for policymakers, as the S&P survey found a slowdown in employment.
Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows investors have cut dovish bets and predicted the Fed will keep rates on hold for this year. US Treasury yields, especially the 2-year, rose following the NFP release.
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical Approach
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3205. The near-term bias is mild bearish as the spot is below the simple moving average (SMA) clustered around 1.3550, confirming the loss of upside momentum after repeated failures along the descending resistance trendline starting at 1.3869. The price has also slipped from a previous series of high-supported closes along the rising trendline from 1.3035, leading to a focus on defending recent lows rather than extending profits. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index continues to be bullish, underscoring a strong US dollar backdrop that keeps rallies in GBP/USD subdued while the pair trades below the broken resistance zone.
Initial resistance emerges in the psychological 1.3300 area, where the former rebound is stalled before the descending trend line, followed by the 1.3400 and then 1.3500 areas aligning with the grouped moving averages that form the upside. On the downside, immediate support is at 1.3200, just below the current price, with a break to 1.3100 and then 1.3035 exposing the origin of the rising trend line. A daily close below this latter band would confirm a deep bearish extension, while a recovery above 1.3400 would ease immediate downside pressure and open a broader retracement towards 1.3500.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the help of AI tools.)
Price of pound sterling this week
The table below shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against the major currencies listed this week. The British pound was the strongest against the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | EUR | gbp | JPY | scurvy | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | 0.45% | -0.37% | 0.43% | -0.39% | 0.98% | 0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | 0.63% | -0.22% | 0.60% | -0.20% | 1.17% | 0.59% | |
| gbp | -0.45% | -0.63% | -0.80% | -0.02% | -0.83% | 0.54% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.37% | 0.22% | 0.80% | 0.81% | 0.01% | 1.37% | 0.69% | |
| scurvy | -0.43% | -0.60% | 0.02% | -0.81% | -0.84% | 0.55% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.39% | 0.20% | 0.83% | -0.01% | 0.84% | 1.38% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | -0.98% | -1.17% | -0.54% | -1.37% | -0.55% | -1.38% | -0.61% | |
| CHF | -0.40% | -0.59% | 0.07% | -0.69% | 0.06% | -0.75% | 0.61% |
The heat map shows the percentage change of major currencies against each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select British Pounds from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollars, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (basis)/USD (quote).
