A note of economists in Goldman Sachs through a Bloomberg article.
Summary:
The forecast of economists of Goldman Sachs for US core PCE inflation (Personal Consumption Price Index except food and energy):
- 3.8% at the end of 2025 (from their previous estimate of 3.5%)
- 2.7% at the end of 2026 (previous estimate 2.3%)
These forecasts compare the latest core PCE inflation reading at only 2.6%.
GS quoted:
1. America “Dollar has weakened … In response to tariff news, instead of offering the direct impact of tariff on prices”
2. “Prohibitionly high tariff rates on imports from China will reduce the demand for imports from China to high production cost countries, but will reduce US tariff rates”
later this year,
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