ING’s Muhammed Mercen forecasts Turkey’s 4Q25 GDP growth at 3.9%, down from 3.8% for 2025, based on domestic demand but with some quarterly loss in momentum. He expects inflation to remain as high as 2.9% month-on-month and 31.4% year-on-year in February, warning that more negative surprises could prompt the central bank to halt tightening at the March MPC meeting.
Strong domestic demand versus stable prices
“We expect growth of 3.9%, which will translate into growth of 3.8% for the whole of 2025.”
“This implies continued resilience in GDP amid domestic demand-driven growth, although there is likely to be some deceleration in momentum on a quarterly basis.”
“On the other hand, inflation should remain high in February, the central bank has warned, due to pressure on food prices to rise ahead of Ramadan.”
“We see the monthly figure of 2.9%, with annual inflation rising to 31.4% from 30.7% a month ago.”
“In our view, more negative surprises would make the bank more cautious and hence would likely lead to a pause in the March MPC meeting.”
(This article was created with the help of an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
