WASHINGTON — An investigation into the loss of a privately operated methane monitoring satellite earlier this year could not identify a single root cause of the spacecraft’s failure.
MethaneSat, a mission led by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) with participation from the New Zealand Space Agency, ceased communications in orbit in June, 15 months after launch. The project formally announced the mission on July 1.
In a two-page report released on November 7 by New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, the investigation into the failure said the spacecraft malfunction was likely caused by an “isolate incident” in its avionics unit or electrical power subsystem.
However, the limited data available prevented investigators from making a more precise determination. “Although the investigation concluded that the direct cause originated with or spread to one of the two identified sub-systems, the specific cause of the system failure is unknown,” the report said.
The report said a malfunction in either subsystem could be caused by factors such as failure of a printed circuit board in the avionics unit, failure of a printed circuit board or electronic component in the bus interface, or failure of a thruster or related system that sends high current to other parts of the spacecraft.
The report concluded, “Based on the limited data available, it is not possible to state the relative likelihood between these potential factors.”
The report said it could not rule out several other possible causes, ranging from orbital debris impacts to “unexpected fault system interactions”, but concluded that each factor was much less likely than the others.
The report, based on on-orbit imaging of MethaneSat taken between late June and mid-July, said the spacecraft itself remains intact. However, those images showed that the spacecraft was not on its proper course.
The New Zealand Ministry released the report as part of an overall report on its participation in the mission. The government spent $29 million New Zealand ($16.4 million) on the mission, which included support for the rocket lab-led mission operations centers for initial operations of the spacecraft as well as the University of Auckland, which was prepared to take over long-term operations.
The government report made every effort to argue that this could not have prevented the spacecraft’s failure. “The technical failure, while disappointing, occurred beyond New Zealand’s control and within the limits of accepted risk in space missions,” it said.
However, the mission has been facing persistent technical problems since its launch in March 2024. “The satellite failure occurred largely, but not entirely, on an ‘off-the-shelf’ bus that was customized for a specific purpose,” the report said. “Some sub-components, such as the thrusters, had limited flight heritage and some issues arose.”
A timeline of “weekly report items” in the report refers several times to technical issues with the spacecraft, starting in July 2024. An entry in October 2024 stated, “Rocket Lab is managing recurring subsystem issues while testing automation to improve MSAT data downlinking.”
Another entry three weeks later said, “Rocket Lab expands downlink scheduling despite technical challenges.”
In March 2025, mission operations were transferred from Rocket Lab to Blue Canyon Technologies (BCT), which manufactured the spacecraft bus. “BCT built the satellite, and the temporary relocation will enable them to address the challenges that are affecting its operations,” the government ministry said at the time. “Operational challenges are not uncommon in space missions, in this case the BCT team is in the best position to manage them.”
However, others familiar with the mission say the problems with MethaneSat were unusual. Richard Easter, a physics professor at the University of Auckland, said the spacecraft may have suffered the effects of space weather on electronics, which did not use radiation-hardened components, based on reports of the spacecraft repeatedly going into safe mode.
There has been no significant increase in failed satellites during the current peak of the 11-year solar cycle, he reported in a November 6 blog post about the mission. “But for whatever reason, MethaneSat could not withstand the harsh but easily predictable environment that comes with space.”
That and other issues, he argued, suggested EDF rushed to complete the spacecraft to meet the March 2024 launch date on the SpaceX rideshare mission. He concluded, “Unfortunately, it appears that EDF may have compromised quality in order to retain some semblance of its original program.”
