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Iran entered a new chapter on Saturday after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, bringing an abrupt end to more than three decades of authoritarian rule and beginning a leadership transition the regime had long prepared for.
a senior Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel While Khamenei’s demise is a “major blow” to the Islamic Republic, Tehran anticipated the possibility and took steps to face such a scenario.
“Only survival would be considered a victory at this point,” the diplomat said of the regime, according to the outlet, following American and Israeli attacks across the country.
a recent report The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) outlined three broad trajectories for a post-Khamenei Iran: managed regime continuity, an overt or gradual military takeover, or systemic collapse.
Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli attack on Saturday. (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran via Getty Images)
The CFR cautioned that given the regime’s deeply institutionalized power structure and record of using force to maintain control, even a leadership change at the top will not translate into meaningful political reform in the near term.
The real balance of power lies within a tight circle of clerical elites and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the report said.
It describes a possible “continuity” scenario as the creation of “Khamenei-ism without Khamenei”, in which a successor from within the regime preserves the ideological framework of the Islamic Republic while relying on established security institutions to maintain stability.
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“The Constitution of the Islamic Republic includes a succession process. The Assembly of Experts, a clerical body, is constitutionally charged with selecting the next Supreme Leader,” Jason Brodsky, Policy Director united against nuclear iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital.
“In the interim, if there is a leadership vacancy, an Interim Leadership Council is constituted consisting of the President, the Chief Justice and a member of the Guardian Council selected by the Expediency Council,” he said. “The IRGC is a key stakeholder in this process, and will significantly influence its outcome.”
Over the past three decades, the Bayt-e-Rahbari, or office of supreme leader, expanded into 1 february report It has been described by UANI as an “extended parallel state” operating alongside Iran’s formal institutions.
Large crowds gathered in Tehran’s Enghelab Square on Sunday after Iranian state TV announced that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Analysis characterizes the office as the “hidden nerve center” of the regime, extending control over the military, security establishment, and key economic foundations in a way that institutionalizes the system’s authority rather than being dependent on Khamenei’s physical presence.
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The non-partisan policy organization said, “Today the Supreme Leader is no longer just an individual; he is represented through an omnipresent institution that consolidates power, manages succession and guarantees continuity.” “The Islamic Republic’s most enduring strength lies in this hidden architecture of control, which will continue to shape the country’s future long after Khamenei is gone from the scene.”
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