Islamic State and al-Qaeda have changed since the 2015 Paris attacks, Africa is now the epicenter of terrorism and commandos have been replaced by domestic threats.
Paris: A decade after the deadly attacks in Paris, the world’s most notorious jihadist group has evolved significantly while maintaining its global security threat.
Islamic State and al-Qaeda branches pose threats around the world, according to security analysts, with Africa emerging as their primary operational hub.
Both groups previously maintained strong central leadership that trained commandos for European attacks such as the November 13, 2015 Paris attacks that killed 130 people.
Today IS has lost its base in Syria and Iraq while symbolic leaders of both groups have been killed in US strikes.
“The structure of the two major command centers has been significantly weakened,” an unnamed French security source said.
Marc Hecker of the French research center IFRI noted the reorganization of the jihadist movement with particularly active franchises.
“The ultimate strategic objective for both al-Qaeda and Daesh has not changed: the establishment of a global caliphate,” he said.
The European threat has shifted from premeditated attacks to domestic atrocities inspired by jihadist movements.
France’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor Oliver Christen highlighted that “the individuals who are on French soil have never left, and do not necessarily have direct links to, terrorist organizations.”
Jihadi groups now focus their activities primarily in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia rather than in Europe.
While the 2015 jihadist surge focused on Iraq and Syria, IS currently numbers between 1,000 and 1,500 there.
There are an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 IS jihadists in West Africa’s Lake Chad region and host Nigeria, while there are about 2,500 in the Sahel.
Al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM is expanding rapidly in the Sahel, threatening regional regimes, including Mali’s junta.
The Soufan Center warned of a possible “domino effect” if Mali fell, potentially giving a boost to jihadists throughout coastal West Africa.
Islamic State-West Africa Province remains highly active while al-Shabaab dominates the Horn of Africa.
Nicolas Lerner, France’s foreign intelligence chief, said, “Africa is now the epicenter of terrorism and a direct threat to our interests.”
Jihadists benefited from the chaos that followed the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last year.
“The freedom of movement of jihadists increased,” the French security source said of post-Assad Syria.
IS seized this opportunity, although it shows no signs of regaining former territorial dominance.
The IS Khorasan branch represents “the most active franchise” in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, according to researcher Alexander Rode.
The group killed dozens of people in attacks in Kerman, Iran, and a Moscow concert hall in 2024.
Regarding IS Khorasan, a French security source said, “Its capacity to cause harm has been significantly reduced.”
“The Taliban are waging a fierce and effective war against them.” – AFP
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