On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed up +0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.35%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.23%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) fell -0.33%.
Stock indexes were mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting a 6-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials climbing to a new all-time high. The broader market found underlying support Thursday after bond yields edged lower amid a surge in weekly jobless claims, which is disappointing for Fed policy. Additionally, managed healthcare stocks rallied on Thursday, which was a supportive factor for the overall market, and Visa shares rose more than +6% to boost the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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However, the Nasdaq 100 fell to a 1-week low on a selloff in Oracle, which is seen as a harbinger of an AI investment boom. Oracle fell more than 10% on Thursday, leading AI-infrastructure shares, after reporting Q2 cloud sales that missed estimates and raising its 2026 capital spending outlook from $15 billion to $50 billion. Oracle’s results have reignited concerns about technology valuation and whether capital outlays on AI infrastructure will pay off.
US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +44,000 to a 3-month high of 236,000, reflecting a weaker-than-expected labor market of 220,000.
The US September trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to -$52.8 billion compared to expectations of -$63.1 billion and was the smallest deficit in 5.25 years.
Markets are giving a 24% discount to the likelihood that the FOMC will cut the Fed funds target range by 25 bp at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting.
Q3 corporate earnings season is coming to a close as 496 of the S&P 500 companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings beat forecasts for the best quarter since 2021. Third-quarter earnings rose +14.6%, more than double expectations of +7.2% year-over-year.
There was a mixed trend in foreign stock markets on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 hit a 4-week high and closed up +0.80%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.70%. Japan’s Nikkei stock 225 closed down -0.90%.
interest rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) closed at +7.5 ticks on Thursday. The 10-year T-note yield fell -0.6bp to 4.141%. T-notes found support on Thursday on positive carryover from Wednesday when the FOMC cut its 2025 and 2026 US core PCE price projections, and Fed Chair Powell said she does not think a rate hike is anyone’s base case for the Fed’s next policy. T-notes held on to their gains after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly hit a 3-month high, a mitigating factor for Fed policy. Good demand for the $22 billion auction of Treasury’s 30-year T-bonds was also positive for T-notes as the auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36 on a 10-auction average.
European government bond yields are falling today. The 10-year German Bund yield fell -0.7bp to 2.843%. 10-year UK gilt yields fell -2.2bp to 4.484%.
The swaps are giving a discount of -18% to a -25bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 1.
US Stock Movers
Cruise line operators moved higher on Thursday. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) closed up more than +7% to lead the S&P 500. Additionally, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed up more than +6%, and Carnival (CCL) closed up more than +5%.
Managed healthcare stocks rose Thursday. Elevance Health (ELV) closed up more than +5%, and Centene (CNC) and Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed up more than +4%. Additionally, Humana (HUM) and Cigna Group (CI) closed up more than +3%. Additionally, HCA Healthcare (HCA) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed up more than +2%.
Fertilizer stockpiles rose on Thursday after Ukraine said its drones attacked two fertilizer plants in western Russia. Mosaic (MOS) closed up more than +6%, and Intrepid Potash (IPI) closed up more than +5%. Additionally, CF Industries Holdings (CF) closed with gains of over +2%.
Chipmakers retreated Thursday, weighing on the Nasdaq 100. ARM Holdings PLC (ARM), Intel (INTC), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed down more than -3%. Additionally, Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Applied Materials (AMAT), GlobalFoundries (GFS), and Micron Technology (MU) closed down more than -1%.
Oracle (ORCL) led the S&P 500 with losses by more than -10% after reporting second-quarter adjusted revenue of $16.06 billion, below consensus of $16.21 billion, and raising its 2026 capital spending outlook from $15 billion to $50 billion.
Oxford Industries (OXM) closed down more than -21% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.20-$2.40 from the previous estimate of $2.80-$3.20, well below the consensus of $2.91.
Lovesac Co. (LOVE) closed down more than -8% after cutting its 2026 net sales forecast to $685 million-$705 million from the previous forecast of $710 million-$740 million, which is below the consensus of $713.7 million.
Stellantis NV (STLA) closed down more than -3% after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underperform.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) closed down more than -1% after Citigroup downgraded the stock from buy to neutral.
Gemini Space Station Inc. (GEMI) closed up more than +31% after the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission approved the company’s application for a derivatives exchange.
Ciena Corp. (CIEN) closed up more than +8% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $1.35 billion, better than the consensus estimate of $1.29 billion.
Visa (V) closed up more than +6% in the Dow Jones Industrials after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $382.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) closed up more than +2% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $120.
West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) closed up more than +1% after Nephron Research LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $367.
Income Report(12/12/2025)
Johnson Outdoors Inc (JOUT), SR Bancorp Inc (SRBK), Value Line Inc (VALU).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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