April Nymex Natural Gas (NGJ25) closed on Wednesday +0.100 ( +2.30%).
On Wednesday, April Nate-Gais prices settled marginally, but remained at a 2-year high of Tuesday. Nut-gas prices for cooler temperatures in the western half of the US are supported by Outlook, which promotes the demand for heating for net-gas. Forecaster Maxu Technologies said on Wednesday that the US is expected to have a normal temperature below normal temperature during March 15-19.
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In addition, on Tuesday, 10% US tariff on Canadian Net-Gais imports will pressurize the US nut-gas prices upwards as American importers will have to pay those tariffs. In addition, the Canadian province of Ontario said that it can impose 25% export tariffs on electricity, it sends 1.5 million houses in Minnesota, Michigan and New York if American tariffs are kept, which will promote the demand for domestic electricity generated by Nut-Gas.
NAT-Gas prices have been whipped by weather factors in the last one week and remain near the top of the February rally, which was mainly operated by the inventory drawdown caused by the recent cold season. Until 21 February, EIA Nut -Gais invention -11.5% were below their 5 -year average; The most tight supply has been in 2–1/2 years.
According to BNEF, the lower -48 state dry gas production was 106.1 BCF/Day (+4.4 Y/Y). According to BNEF, the demand for low-48 state gas was 86.7 BCF/Day (+9.0% Y/Y) on Wednesday. According to BNEF, US LNG LNG Export Terminals had 15.2 BCF/Day (+0.9% w/w) on Wednesday in LNG LNG export terminals.
An increase in American power generation is positive for demand for NAT-GAS from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute said on Wednesday that the total US (Lower -48) power generation ended on 1 March in the week ended March 1 +2.15% y/y to 76,865 GWH (GWH), and US power generation in the 52 -week period ending on 1 March for 4,231,788 GWH.
In a long-term factor for NAT-GAS prices, President Trump removed the break of the biden administration on approval of gas export projects in January, thus actively considered the backlog of about a dozen LNG export projects. Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is close to the approval of its first LNG export project in Louisiana, Louisiana. Increase in US capacity for export of LNG will increase the demand for US NAT-GAS and will support Net-Gas prices.
The consensus is for the -93 BCF for Thursday’s weekly EIA nut -gass inventions, close to the average of five years for this time of -94 BCF.
Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report was a slight draid for NET -GAS prices for NET -Gais prices for the week ending February 21 -261 BCF, -271 A small draw than expectations of BCF, but a smaller draw for this time of the year of -1111 BCF. Till 21 February, NAT-GAS invention was below their 5-year seasonal average below-22.5% y/y/y and -11.5%, indicating tight NAT-GAS supply. In Europe, gas storage was 38% filled till 2 March, for this time of the year a 5-year seasonal average was 49% full.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of American Nate-Gas Drilling Rigs active in the week ended February 28 from +3 to 102 rigs on February 28, above 3–1/2 years low of 94 rigs posted on 6 September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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