It is a bull market in many markets at the moment, but is definitely not in oil, which is likely to get more bad news on Sunday.
The initial report about Saudi Arabia on Friday emphasizes another production growth and crude has been reduced to $ 1.51, but it is likely to fall even more if there is an increase.
Reuters report that the chances of production in eight OPEC+ countries will increase, but perhaps less than in October, as the summer driving season ends. The group has added 2.5 MBPD to a stable stream quota jump from April this year, the Trump administration is likely to be under pressure.
The risk is that sub-$ 60 oil prices cripple new drilling in the US shell industry. This year there are already indications that this year also the US Drilling Rig Count has also taken a dip.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
Since US crude is such a small-cycle and fall rate, it is an inauspicious sign for 2026 US production and this would mean that ‘drill, baby, drill’ will be a backfire of Trump Admin Talking Point.
OPEC is still withdrawing 1.65 MBPD as part of regular production caps and not ‘voluntary’ people ended with the announcement of last month.
Two sources quoted by Reuters said, “The talks are focusing on the fact that there is a complete cut in gradual monthly increment.” They vary on the amount of crude that could return from 135k BPD to 350k BPD.
In the macro picture, the decline in oil prices is a good thing for short -term inflation and tariff price should help combat pressures, but is like keeping a balloon below water below $ 60 (and possibly $ 70).
Update: The sources of the two Reuters now say that OPEC+ has agreed in theory for at least 135k BPD.
