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A new report is warning that combined combat casualties in the nearly four-year-long Russia-Ukraine war could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. This number includes killed, wounded or missing soldiers from both sides of the war.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report on Tuesday predicting a grim milestone. CSIS said in its report that Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including the deaths of 325,000 soldiers, between February 2022 and December 2025. Meanwhile, he estimates that Ukraine suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including the deaths of 140,000 soldiers. CSIS currently estimates combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties to be as high as 1.8 million.
It is not easy to get a clear picture of deaths and casualties on both sides because neither Moscow nor Kiev provide timely data on military losses, according to the Associated Press, which said both countries are also focused on increasing each other’s casualties. According to the AP report, Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of more than 6,000 soldiers.
Activists and independent journalists have said reports of military losses have been suppressed in Russian media, the outlet said.
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Members of the National Police Special Purpose Battalion of the Zaporizhia Region fire a Bohdana self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops on the front line, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on January 23, 2026. (Stringer/Reuters)
“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report said.
“No major power has suffered such a number of casualties or deaths in any war since World War II,” the report said.
According to the report, casualties and deaths on the Russian battlefield have been “significantly higher” than in Ukraine.
CSIS estimates the ratio to be around 2.5:1 or 2:1. CSIS points to several reasons for the high Russian casualties and deaths, including the country’s “failure to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale, and Ukraine’s effective defense-intensive strategy in the war in favor of defense.” The report also says that Russia has accepted causing more casualties as part of its strategy.
“Russia’s disengagement strategy ultimately accepts the cost of high casualties in the hopes of weakening Ukraine’s military and society,” CSIS said in its report.
Russian service members from a separate engineering unit of the Southern Military District undergo an intensive combat training course to improve their skills in setting up obstacles, clearing terrain of mines and crossing water obstacles, January 19, 2026, amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict at a firing range in the Rostov region of Russia. (Sergei Pivovarov/Reuters)
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In addition to its high death rate, Russia is moving “remarkably slowly,” according to the report. Russian forces have advanced at an average of 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in their most prominent offensives since seizing the military initiative in January 2024, CSIS said in its report. The report’s authors say Russia’s pace “is slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”
The report comes less than a month before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite efforts to end the war by international mediators, including the US, it continues and both sides are suffering casualties.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials said two people were killed during Russian attacks on an apartment block on the outskirts of Kiev, the AP reports. Additionally, at least nine people were injured in separate attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Odessa and Kryvyi Rih.
The US, Ukraine and Russia are holding the first trilateral meeting in years. (Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofiev/Pool via Reuters; Denis Balibous/Reuters; Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via Reuters)
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Representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the US recently met in the UAE for the first trilateral talks after 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a post on Twitter that “the talks were constructive.”
“There was a lot of discussion, and it’s important that… the conversation was constructive,” he wrote on
Fox News Digital contacted the foreign ministries of Russia and Ukraine.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
