S&P 500 Index ($ SPX) (SPY) turned off 0.29%on Wednesday, Dow Jones Industries Index ($ Dowi) (Dia) +0.47%closed, and NASDAQ 100 Index ($ IUXX) (QQQQ) +0.12%. September E-Mune S&P Futures (ESU25) increased +0.33%, and September e-My Nasdaq Futures (NQU25) +0.11%.
President Trump after denying that he intends to fire Fed Chair Powell, then the stock day ended for a long time, although he gave up the possibility of firing them. The stock was temporarily demolished during the afternoon after the reports broadcast that Mr. Trump had told the members of the Republican House that he had met on Tuesday that he wanted to set Mr. Powell on fire.
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The stock received early support on the soft PPI report in the session, which was for the Fed Policy. Stocks were supported even after finishing stock -3 BP after a 10 -year T -Note yield. The afternoon beige book reports supported the shares, as it indicated a small improvement in economic activity compared to the previous report.
The NASDAQ 100 index was reduced from weakness in chip stock after ASML’s disappointing guidance, although some chip stocks were later recovered during the day.
Wednesday’s June PPI report was favorable, as both the months and year-to-year figures were better than expected, suggesting that tariff inflation has not yet killed the manufacturer level. The PPI report gave rise to some inflation optimism after Tuesday’s mixed CPI report.
In particular, the June final-demand PPI was unchanged M/m and +2.3% y/y, which was weak by expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. The June core PPI report +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y of unchanged M/m and +2.6% y/y was weaker than expectations. The year-by-year figures of +2.3% (nominal) and +2.6% y/y (core) were below the modified May data of +2.7% and +3.2% respectively.
Wednesday’s June US Industrial Production Report +0.3%m/m +was slightly stronger than market expectations of 0.1%, and was highly modified to unchanged from -0.2%on May. The June US manufacturing production report of +0.1% m/m was slightly stronger than unchanged expectations.
The July New York Fed Services Business Activity Index increased from -13.2 to -9.3 in June.
The Beige Book Survey of the Fed of American regional economies revealed that the US economic activity “increased slightly in late May and early July.” “The previous report represented the improvement in the previous report, in which half the districts reported a minimum decline in the activity.” “Uncertainty increased, contributed to the caution on businesses,” the report said.
Regarding inflation, the beige book stated that all districts reported price hike, with businesses, “tariff -related input costs are modest for pressure”. The report stated, “Many firms passed on a part of the least cost, growing for consumers through prices hikes or surcharge, although some customers increase prices due to rising prices sensitivity, resulting in compressed profit margin.”
After some agitation on Pavel News, expectations for Fed Policy changed very little. Federal Fund futures prices are offering a discount of 58% in the following meeting for 3% cut in July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% in the following meeting on 16-17 September.
Bitcoin (^Btsusd) held a rally of +2.3% on Wednesday, controlling the decline of 3.3% on Tuesday. After President Trump, Bitcoin said he said he had spoken to the right -wing house Republican to support the Stabecrim Bill, the house speaker Johnson still did not get a procedural vote until late afternoon. Bitcoin has raised rapidly in the last several weeks, inspired by the expectations of Crypto regulation friendly from Washington.
On the trade front, President Trump said on Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, giving the entire group the same tariff. He said that the group would not be a “big” country.
Recent trade and tariff news have been mixed. Treasury Secretary Besant said the US-China trade talks are in a “very good place” and told the market participants, “There were some positive business news not to worry on August 12. After the announcement by President Trump, there were some positive trade news on Tuesday that his administration had reached a trade agreement with Indonesia.
However, the stock was reduced by negative trade news that emerged last week and during this previous weekend. Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US would impose 30% tariffs on US imports from European Union and Mexico from August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that 35% tariff on some Canadian products will be effective on 1 August. Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which would include semi-fantasy goods, and said that pharmaceutical companies could face up to 200% tariffs on imports if they do not move production in the US within next year.
The markets will focus on any new news about tariffs or trade deals during the remaining time of this week. On Thursday, June retail sales +0.1% m/m/m and +0.3% pre-autos are expected to climb, and weekly early unemployment claims are expected to climb from +7,000 to 234,000. In addition, on Thursday, July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey is expected to climb +3.0 Issue -1.0, and July NAHB is expected to grow from Housing Market Index +1 to 33. On Friday, June residence is expected to begin +3.3% m/m to 1.298 million, and June building permits are expected. In addition, the University of Michigan University is expected to climb +0.8 to 61.5 in the US July Consumer Affairs Index.
With focus on Big Bank income results, the earning season started in Bayana this week. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the consensus is for S&P 500 companies, which is to show an increase in the C2 income of +2.8% y/y, the smallest growth in two years. In addition, only six of the eleven S&P 500 regions are estimated to post the lowest income increase since the Yardney Research, according to Yardney Research.
Foreign stock markets are less today. The Euro Stocksx closed down 50 -1.05%. China’s Shanghai Composite -0.03%shut down. Japan’s Nikkei Stock closed down 225 -0.04%.
Interest rates
September 10-Year T-notes (znu25) rose +10.5 tick. The yield of 10 -year T -Rott -3.2 BP fell to 4.449%. Bulish factors included the favorable PPI report and some safe-heaven demand amid the latest tariff hazards. The recession factors included a strong-to-intake, and 10-year inflation expectations compared to US industrial production and beige book reports, up to +1.0 bp growth 2.424%.
At the short end of the Treasury Curve, some temporary supports have been observed from the reports that want to fire President Trump Fed Chair Powell, resulting in Powell’s replacement that may be cut in the near duration in the Federal Feds Rate Target range of Fed. However, the long end of the Treasury curve will see a poly firing as the development of a recession, which probably pursues low interest rates due to the politically operated central bank’s inflation risks.
The yield of European government bonds became mixed. 10 -year -old German Bund yield -2.4 BP fell to 2.687%. The 10 -year -old UK gilt yield +1.4 bp increased to 4.639%.
In the July 24 policy meeting, Swaps are offering discounts at 2% for cutting -25 BP rate cut by ECB.
US Stock Movers
Brilliant seven shares closed mixed, with four gainers and three loses. The largest movers were Tesla, which had a profit of more than +3.5%, and Amazn, with a loss of -1.4%.
Wall Street firms generally reported positive results in the early hours of Wednesday. The Goldman Sachs (GS) finished the day to +0.9% after reporting a $ 4.3 billion equity-trading revenue of the Wall Street Records. In addition, the management fee in property and money management increased +11% y/y.
The Bank of America (BAC), despite stating that, shut down -0.3% day down that its trading division posted a record quarter and that net interest was better than expected.
Morgan Stanley (MS) finished the day despite reporting strong equity -trading income and promoting pure new property in his wealth management division.
ASML (ASML) fell over -8% after issuing vigilant guidance for next year. The report reduced the enthusiasm for the chip sector, which generally decreased after Tuesday’s rally on optimism about the Trump administration’s move to loosen some chip sales restrictions to China on Tuesday.
Micron Technology (MU) -3%shut down, while Marvel Technology (MRVL) and Applied Materials (AMAT) closed more than 2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks followed by a crypto bill supported by a crypto bill supported by the Industry and the White House after Bitcusd. The riot platform (riot), Mara Holdings (Mara), and Strategy (MSTR) +exceeded 3%.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) held rallies of more than +6% after increasing their full-year sales guidance for the year and reporting a better-than-preferred report from Q2 income and revenue.
Earning Report (7/17/2025)
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), Travelers Cos Inc./The (TRV), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), Sintas Corp (CTAS), Marsh and McClenn Cos Inc. (MMC), US BANCORD (USB), SNAP-on Ink (SNA), Snap-on (SNA), Netflix Inc. (NFLX).
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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