The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.35% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.75%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.40%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.80%.
Stock indices are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials at a 1-week high. The broader market is under pressure today as Nvidia’s earnings failed to ease concerns about the overheated AI economy, which is weighing on chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks. Although Nvidia handily beat fourth-quarter earnings estimates and projected a first-quarter outlook that exceeded expectations, the stock is down more than 3% as it still faces uncertainty from China and will continue to keep data center revenue in China out of its forecasts due to concerns about Chinese government approvals.
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Stocks were supported by a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims, a sign of labor market strength. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions are supportive for stocks as crude oil prices have fallen by over -2% and stocks gained momentum today after Oman’s Foreign Minister, who is mediating nuclear discussions between the US and Iran, said “constructive and positive views” were exchanged and the discussions have been positive so far and will continue to be so.
Crude geopolitical risks remain negative for stocks as nuclear talks between the US and Iran continue in Geneva. On Tuesday evening, President Trump said Iranian officials were “again pursuing their sinister nuclear ambitions”, leading to speculation that the US could be preparing a military strike on Iran in the coming days. Last Friday, President Trump said he was considering a limited military strike on Iran to increase pressure on the country for an agreement on its nuclear program and gave them a March 1-6 deadline for an agreement on the country’s nuclear activities and threatened military strikes if they failed to comply.
In Tuesday night’s State of the Union address, President Trump doubled down on his commitment to the tariffs. President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs go into effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court struck down his global “reciprocating” tariffs last Friday. Mr Trump later threatened to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, and an administration official said the White House was working on a formal order to impose that higher rate, but a timeline for its implementation has not been finalized. Mr Trump is imposing a 10% baseline levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the President to impose tariffs for 150 days without congressional approval.
US weekly initial unemployment claims rose +4,000 to 212,000, reflecting a stronger-than-expected labor market of 216,000.
This week the market’s focus will be on corporate earnings results and economic news. The February MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slip to 52.2 from -1.8 on Friday.
Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 453 S&P 500 companies reporting better than expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Magnificent Seven Excluding megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase +4.6%.
Markets are giving a -25% discount to a 2bp rate cut in the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
There was a mixed trend in foreign stock markets today. Euro Stoxx 50 reached a new record high and is up +0.32%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.01%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 climbed to a new all-time high and closed up +0.29%.
interest rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) are at +2 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield declined by -1.2bp to 4.040%. T-notes are slightly higher as the -2% drop in WTI crude oil prices today has dampened inflation expectations. Gains in T-notes were limited after a smaller-than-expected increase in weekly US unemployment claims was a scare factor for Fed policy. Additionally, T-notes are being cut due to supply pressure as the Treasury will auction $44 billion of 7-year T-notes later today.
European government bond yields were mixed on Wednesday. The 10-year German Bund yield declined by -0.6bp to 2.701%. UK 10-year gilt yields fell to a 14.5-month low of 4.290% and declined -2.3bp to 4.294%.
The Eurozone February economic confidence indicator unexpectedly fell by -1.0 to 98.3, weaker than expectations for a rise of 99.8.
Eurozone mass M3 money supply increased by +3.3% year-on-year, stronger than expected +2.9% year-on-year and the largest increase in 6 months.
The swaps are discounting a -25% chance of a 25bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
AI-infrastructure stocks and chipmakers are slipping today after Nvidia’s results failed to calm investor concerns about the disruptive risk of artificial intelligence. Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), Lam Research (LRCX), and Western Digital (WDC) are down more than -4%. Additionally, Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Intel (INTC) are down more than -3%. Additionally, Nvidia (NVDA) is down more than -3% to lead the losers in the Dow Jones Industrials despite reporting Q4 data center revenue of $62.3 billion, stronger than the consensus of $60.36 billion, as the results failed to ease investors’ concerns about demand sustainability. Finally, Micron Technology (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are down more than -2%.
Software stocks are climbing today, which is a supportive factor for the broader market. Atlassian (TEAM), Intuit (INTU), Datadog (DDOG), and ServiceNow (NOW) are up more than +3%. Additionally, Salesforce (CRM) is up +2% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $11.20 billion, beating the consensus of $11.17 billion, and forecast first-quarter revenue of $11.08 billion, up from $11.03 billion, which is stronger than the consensus of $10.99 billion. Additionally, Autodesk (ADSK), Adobe Systems (ADBE), and CrowdStrike (CRWD) are up more than +1%.
PROCEPT Biorobotics (PRCT) is down more than -22% after estimating full-year revenue of $300 million to $410 million, falling short of the $422.1 million consensus.
Donaldson (DCI) is down more than -16% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 83 cents, below the consensus of 89 cents, and cut its full-year adjusted EPS to $3.93-$4.01 from the previous forecast of $3.95-$4.11, which is weaker than the consensus of $4.05.
Pure Storage (PSTG) declined more than -13% after the company gave an outlook that TD Cowen said pointed to slower growth.
Chemed Corp (CHE) is down more than -13% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $6.42, well below the consensus estimate of $7.03.
Universal Health Services (UHS) is leading the pack among losses in the S&P 500, falling more than -7% after reporting fourth-quarter net revenue of $4.49 billion, which missed the consensus estimate of $4.51 billion.
The Trade Desk (TTD) is down more than -6% after estimating Q1 revenue of $678 million, falling short of the consensus of $688.8 million.
Synopsis (SNPS) is down more than -2% after forecasting full-year free cash flow of $1.90 billion, which fell short of the consensus of $1.94 billion.
Celsius Holdings (CELH) is up more than +14% after reporting fourth-quarter sales of $721.6 million, well above the $639 million consensus.
Chime Financial (CHYM) is up more than +13% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $596.4 million, stronger than the consensus of $578.3 million, and estimating full-year revenue of $2.63 billion to $2.67 billion, better than the consensus of $2.60 billion.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is leading the S&P 500 with a +8% gain after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $8.15 billion, above the consensus estimate of $8.12 billion.
JM Smucker (SJM) rose more than +7% after it said two new directors would join its board as part of a deal with activist investor Elliott Investment Management.
Janus Henderson Group PLC (JHG) is up more than +5% after Victory Capital offered to buy the company for $57.04 per share.
Earnings Report(2/26/2026)
AES Corp/The (AES), Autodesk Inc (ADSK), Block Inc (XYZ), Cotera Energy Inc (CTRA), Dell Technologies Inc (DELL), EMCOR Group Inc (EME), Hormel Foods Corp (HRL), Intuit Inc (INTU), JM Smucker Co/The (SJM), Monster Beverage Corp (MNST), NetApp Inc (NTAP), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Qnity Electronics Inc (Q), SBA Communications Corp (SBAC), Sempra (SRE), Solventum Corp (SOLV), Viatris Inc (VTRS), Vistra Corp (VST), Warner Bros. Discovery Inc (WBD), Zscaler Inc (ZS).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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