On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed +0.11% higher, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed -0.13% lower, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed +0.11% higher. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.08%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.11%.
Stock indexes recovered from early losses on Thursday and closed higher on optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could soon be reopened. Short covering in stocks emerged on Thursday after a report by Iran’s state-run IRNA cited Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi as saying that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Stocks also got support from Thursday’s US economic news, which was better than expected. Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by -9,000 to a 2.5-month low of 202,000, reflecting a stronger-than-expected labor market increase of 212,000. Additionally, the February trade deficit was -$57.3 billion, lower than expectations of -$60.6 billion.
Stocks opened lower on Thursday as crude oil prices rose more than +11% after President Trump dashed hopes of an early end to the war with Iran. On Wednesday evening, during a speech before the American public, Mr Trump vowed more aggressive action against Iran in the next two to three weeks and offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices (CLK26) continue to rise as the Iran war looks to drag on and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The UAE is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force and is lobbying for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing such action. The International Energy Agency warned that even if the war ends in a few weeks, it will take time for normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and faces lengthy repairs.
Markets are discounting a +1% chance of a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
Foreign stock markets closed with a decline on Thursday. Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.70%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.74%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell from 2-week high and closed down by -2.38%.
interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) closed at +1 tick on Thursday. The 10-year T-note yield fell -1.8bp to 4.301%. June T-notes recovered early losses and edged slightly higher on Thursday as selling in equity markets boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes. Additionally, T-notes are finding support on concerns that rising energy prices will derail the global economy and could prompt the Fed to lower interest rates.
T-notes edged lower today Thursday on signs of strength in the US labor market after weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 2.5-month low, a looming factor for Fed policy. Additionally, the +11% rise in crude oil prices on Thursday further raised inflation expectations, which is a bearish factor for T-notes, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate hit a 1-week high of 2.361%.
European government bond yields rose on Thursday. The 10-year German Bund yield rose +0.7bp to 2.992%. 10-year UK gilt yields rose +0.3bp to 4.833%.
The swaps are discounting a 50% chance of a +25bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Airline stocks and cruise line operators fell sharply on Thursday as crude oil prices surged more than +11%, pushing up fuel costs and cutting into corporate profits. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Carnival (CCL) closed down more than -3%, and American Airlines Group (AAL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) closed down more than -2%. Additionally, Southwest Airlines (LUV), Alaska Air Group (ALK), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed down more than -1%.
Asset management shares fell on Thursday after Blue Owl Capital said it would limit redemptions from two of its private credit funds amid a surge in withdrawal requests. Ares Management (ARES) closed down more than -3%, and Apollo Global Management (APO) closed down more than -2%. Additionally, Blue Owl Capital (OWL) and Blackstone (BX) closed down more than -1%.
Metals and finished goods stocks fell on Thursday after the Trump administration maintained 50% tariffs on many steel, aluminum and copper imports. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) closed down more than -3%, and Century Aluminum (CENX), Commercial Metals (CMC), and Carrier Global (CARR) closed down more than -1%.
SBA Communications (SBAC) closed up more than +18% among the gainers in the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported the company is exploring options including a potential sale after receiving initial acquisition interest.
Globalstar (GSAT) closed up more than +13% after the Financial Times reported that Amazon.com is in talks to acquire the company.
Wingstop (WING) closed up more than +5% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $240.
Intel (INTC) closed the Nasdaq 100 up more than +4% after DA Davidson said Intel’s action to pay $14.2 billion to buy back half of its plant in Ireland bodes well for the company’s turnaround story.
SM Energy (SM) closed up more than +4% after BMO Capital Markets raised its price target on the stock from $26 to $33.
Matador Resources (MTDR) closed up more than +3% after KeyBanc Capital Markets raised its price target on the stock from $61 to $73.
Alto Neuroscience (ANRO) closed down more than -7% after its ALTO-101, a drug to treat cognitive impairment associated with schizophrenia, failed to achieve statistical significance compared with placebo in a Phase 2 trial.
Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than -5% to lead losses in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 vehicle deliveries of 358,023, below a consensus of 372,160.
Estée Lauder (EL) closed down more than -2% among the losers in the S&P 500 after it said it was moving forward in talks to combine with Puig Brands SA.
Income Report(4/6/2026)
ECB Bancorp Inc/MD (ECBK), Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC), Immersion Corp (IMMR), RXSight Inc (RXST).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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