S&P 500 Index (SPY) (SPY) with a decline of -0.64%on Friday, Dow Jones Industries Index ($ Dowi) (DIA) -0.20%and NASDAQ 100 Index ($ IUXX) ($ IUXX) (QQ) -1.22%. The September E -Mini S&P Futures (ESU25) fell down, and the September E -Mini Nasdaq Futures (NQU25) -1.31%fell.
Stock index retreated on Friday, weighed with weakness in technology shares. Marvell Technology gave more than -18% information to lead a semiconductor stock, which is estimated that the Revenue of the Q2 data center is estimated. In addition, the Computer Hardware fell over -8% to lead the computer hardware stock after reporting strict profit margin on the AI server.
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After August MNI Chicago PMI, the stock was added to its loss and the University’s US August Consumer Affairs Index was unexpectedly reduced. In addition, the US July Core PCE Price Index is the pressure of inflation, the fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the highest in five months.
On the positive side for shares, the US consumer demand remains flexible after individual expenses after July, which has increased the most in four months. In addition, the expectations of inflation of Michigan University were unexpectedly modified. In addition, Dowish comments of Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daily were rapid for shares as they indicated their support for the fed rate cut.
US July Personal Expenditure +0.5% M/M, Most in four months, and right on expectations. July individual income increased +0.4% m/m, right on expectations.
The US July core PCE Price Index, Fed’s favorite inflation gauge in June +2.8% y/y +2.9% y/y increased to a 5 -month high of y/y, correct on expectations but above 2% inflation target.
The US August MNI Chicago fell from PMI -5.6 to 41.5, weak with expectations of 46.0.
The August American Consumer Affairs Index of the University of Michigan was revised less than 58.2 to 58.2, which was weakened by the expectations of no change at 58.6.
The expectations of inflation of August 1 -year of Michigan University were unexpectedly modified from -0.1 to 4.8%, which was weakened up to 5.0%than the expectations of amendment upwards. The expectations of inflation of August 5–10 years were revised from 3.9% -0.4 to 3.5%.
Late on Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he supports the 25-BP rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and estimates an additional rate cut in the next three to six months. He said, “The underlying inflation close to 2%, the market-based measures of long-term inflation, firmly anchored, and the possibility of an undesirable weakening in the labor market increased, proper risk management means that FOMC should now cut the policy rate.”
San Francisco Fed president Mary Daily indicated that he was soon open to low interest rates, saying, “It will be time to rebuild the policy to reconcile the policy better than our economy.” He said that the tariff-related price increases “will be one-band” and this “will take time before we know for some, but we cannot wait for the right certainty without harming the labor market.”
Regarding tariffs, President Trump on Monday threatened to impose new tariffs and export ban on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against other nations’ digital service taxes, against digital service taxes killing American companies. Last week, Mr. Trump widened steel and aluminum tariffs to include more than 400 consumer goods, including metals such as motorcycles, auto parts, furniture components and tableware. The change came into force last Monday and did not exclude goods in transit already.
In other recent tariffs news, Mr. Trump extended the tariff truss with China for 90 days till November 13 on August 13. On 6 August, Mr. Trump announced that he would double tariffs on US imports from India with current 25% tariffs due to the purchase of Russian oil from India. According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will increase by 15.2%. If the rates are applied, before 13.3%, and much higher than 2.3% in 2024 before the announcement of the tariff.
Federal Fund Futures Prices are exempting the possibility of a cut of 88% for cutting -25 BP rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on 16-17 September. The markets are giving discounts at 55% for 55% possibility for cuts in second -25 BP rate in the following meeting on October 28-29.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the earnings report indicates that S&P 500 for Q2 is on track to increase +9.1% y/y, +2.8% y/y pre-seasons of y/y are the best in the pre-season expectations and four years. With Q2 Income season, more than 95% S&P 500 firms reported Q2 income, about 82% of the companies exceeded profit estimates.
Foreign stock markets became mixed on Friday. Euro Stoxx 50 2 -fell to the low -level level and closed down -0.83%. China’s Shanghai Composite +0.37%closed. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 -0.26 closed.
Interest rates
September 10-year-old T-notes (Znu5) closed on Friday-2.5 ticks, and 10-year T-Rote yield +2.4bp increased to 4.227%.
SEP T-Nots posted a minor loss on Friday after the US July Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, a 5-month high +2.9% y/y reached a high level. The German August CPI is also under the pressure of T-notes due to weakness in 10-year-old German bunds after exceeding expected.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he supports the 25BP rate cut in the September FOMC meeting and estimates an additional rate cut in the next three to six months in the next three to six months after the loss in T. Nots. In addition, the expectations of Aug inflation of the University of Michigan were reduced to a dovish factor for Fed Policy.
The yield of European government bonds increased on Friday. 10 -year -old German Bund yield +2.9 bp increased to 2.724%. The 10 -year -old UK gilt yield +2.2 bp increased to 4.722%.
ECB’s 1 -year CPI expectations remained unchanged from June to 2.6%from June, which is more than expected +2.5%strong. ECB July 3-year-old CPI hopes unexpectedly climbed +2.5%, stronger than expectations of no change at +2.4%.
German August unemployment unexpectedly fell by -9,000, showing a strong labor market compared to +10,000 expectations.
German July retail sales fell -1.5% m/m, weaker than expectations without any change and the biggest decline in about two years.
German August CPI (European Union’s harmony) increased +2.1% y/y, +2.0% stronger than expectations.
In the September 11 policy meeting, Swaps are offering discounts at 2% for cutting -25 BP rate cut by ECB.
US Stock Movers
The passers were sold on Friday, which led to the notice of revenue of Q2 data center of $ 1.49 billion below $ 1.49 billion consensus after leading losing the loser in NASDAQ 100 under the leadership of a dip of -18% in Marvell Technology (MRVL). In addition, LAM Research (LRCX) closed more than 4%, and broadcom (AVGO), NVIDIA, and Advanced Micro devices (AMD) closed more than 3%. In addition, ARM Holdings PLC (ARM), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), Intel (Intel), Semiconductor Corp (ON), and Micron Technology (MU) all closed more than 2%.
Dell Technologies (Dell) shut down more than -8% to lead the losers in the S&P500, and the manufacturer of computer hardware is below $ 2.20 billion after reporting $ 2.28 billion Q2 operating income of $ 2.28 billion. In addition, the Super Micro Computer (SMCI) -5% closed and the Hewlet Packed Enterprise (HPE) -2% closed.
Inverted beauty (inverted) After consumers warned of potential pullbacks, more than-7% shut down despite reporting a better-and-from net sales.
Caterpillar (CAT) stopped after a warning of over -3% to lead losing in Dove Jones Industrial that it faces a large and more and-widing tariff headwind of $ 1.8 billion this year.
The dollar General (DG) shut down more than -2% despite the reporting of better-than-preferred Q2 EPS, as it was said that it expects selling in Q3, “more pressure” in general and administrative (SG & A) expenses and warned of hard gross margin comparison in Q4.
The cryptocurrency -exposed stock fell on Friday after the price of Bitcusd fell to a 7 -week low of more than 3% -3%. As a result, the Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed more than 4%, and the coinbase global (coin) and strategy (MSTR) closed more than -1%.
After reporting Q2 net revenue of $ 1.76 billion in Autodesk (Adsk) S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, better than $ 1.72 billion, and $ 180 billion-$ 1.81 billion Revenue of Q3, to put up the revenue of $ 1.77 billion, was more than 9% after being stronger than $ 1.77 billion.
Ambarella (AMBA) Q2 of 15 cents closed more than +16%after reporting EPS, well above 6 cents, and +19%-25%forecasting increased estimates by 2026 -35%.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) closed more than +10% after reporting Q4 revenue of $ 876.4 million, which was above the consensus of $ 838.6 million.
Sentinelon (S) stopped more than 6% after increasing its 2026 revenue forecast from $ 998 million- $ 1 billion to $ 996 million- $ 1 billion from $ 1 billion.
Celsius Holdings (Celh) +exceeded 5%, when PepsiCo increased its stake in the company, to an AS-converted basis to about 11% and an additional director would be nominated to serve in the board of directors of Celsius Holdings.
Managed healthcare stocks were received on Friday. Molina Healthcare (MOH) +closed more than 3%, and Elemented Health (ELV) and Centen (CNC) +exceeded 2%. In addition, the United Health Group (UNH) Dow Jones was more than +2% to lead the beneficiaries in Industrial. In addition, Humana (HUM) and CVS Health (CVS) +closed over 1%.
Earning Report (9/2/2025)
Academy Sports and Outdoor Inc. (ASO), Healthquity Inc., Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG), Jasceller Inc. (ZS).
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
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