On Friday, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down -0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.56%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.14%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -0.12%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.12%.
Stock indexes gave up early gains on Friday and closed mixed, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a 6-week high. Stocks rose on Friday as inflation concerns eased after US consumer prices rose less than expected last month. Also, hopes that this weekend’s talks between the US and Iran would lead to a diplomatic solution to the war were supportive for stocks.
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However, the S&P 500 fell from a 5-week high on Friday due to weakness in software stocks amid fears of AI disruption. Additionally, a stronger-than-expected decline in the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index to a record low was negative for stocks. Additionally, stocks came under pressure Friday afternoon after the New York Post reported that President Trump said US warships were being replenished with ammunition to resume attacks on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail.
Crude oil prices fell on Friday despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed. There has been little sign of a meaningful increase in traffic through the strait since the US-Iran ceasefire began on Wednesday, as shipowners await clarification of its status. Hopes for less hostilities in the Middle East are getting a boost after Israel said it would start direct talks with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and end the conflict, with the US agreeing to host a meeting between the two sides next week.
WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with Iran still restricting access to global markets and blocking energy flows. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said on Thursday that oil tankers and other ships wishing to transit the strait should communicate with Iranian authorities to ensure their safe passage. More than 800 ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf, with more than 1,000 ships waiting for transit on both sides of the strait. Before the war, the average daily volume of ships passing through the strait was about 135.
US March CPI rose +3.3% year-on-year, the biggest increase in two years, but slightly below expectations of +3.4% year-on-year. March core CPI rose +2.6% year-on-year, slightly below expectations of +2.7% year-on-year.
US February factory orders were unchanged per month, a stronger than expected -0.2% per month decline.
The University of Michigan US April consumer sentiment index fell -5.7 to a record low of 47.6 (data since 1978), weaker than expectations of 51.5.
April 1-year inflation expectations at the University of Michigan rose to an 8-month high of 4.8%, stronger than expected at 4.2%. Inflation expectations rose to a 5-month high of 3.4% in April 5-10, in line with expectations.
Markets are discounting a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
Foreign stock markets closed with gains on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 5-week high and closed up +0.51%. China’s Shanghai Composite hit a 3-week high and closed +0.51% higher. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 hit a 5-week high and closed up +1.84%.
interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) closed at -4.5 ticks on Friday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +3.6bp to 4.311%. T-notes fell on Friday after the US March CPI rose +3.3% year-on-year, the largest increase in two years, an hawkish factor for Fed policy. Additionally, US April 1-year inflation rising above expectations from the University of Michigan to an 8-month high is bearish for T-notes. Moreover, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2.5-week high of 2.384% on Friday, which is a negative factor for T-notes. WTI crude oil prices fell -1% on Friday, limiting losses in T-notes as inflation expectations fell.
European government bond yields rose on Friday. The 10-year German Bund yield rose +7.0bp to 3.058%. 10-year UK gilt yields rose +8.6bp to 4.835%.
The swaps are discounting a 34% chance of a +25bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Software stocks were under pressure on Friday amid concerns about AI disruption following the launch of Anthropic’s cloud managed agents and the unveiling of new artificial intelligence models by Meta Platforms. ServiceNow (NOW) closed down more than -7%, and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) closed down more than -5%. Additionally, Salesforce (CRM) closed down more than -3% to lead declines in the Dow Jones Industrials. Additionally, Datadog (DDOG) closed down more than -3%, and Atlassian (TEAM), Autodesk (ADSK), Intuit (INTU), and Adobe (ADBE) closed down more than -2%.
Cybersecurity stocks declined on Friday, with Cloudflare (NET) closing down more than -13% and Okta (OKTA) closing down more than -7%. Additionally, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) closed down more than -6% to lead the losers in the Nasdaq 100. Additionally, Fortinet (FTNT) closed down more than -4%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) and Zscaler (ZS) closed down more than -3%.
Chip makers edged higher on Friday, which is a supportive factor for the overall market. Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +4%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +3%. Additionally, Nvidia (NVDA) and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +2%. Additionally, Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +1%.
Optical component makers rallied on Friday amid optimism over AI infrastructure demand. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) closed up more than +12%, and Coherent (COHR) closed up more than +8%. Additionally, Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +7% to lead the Nasdaq 100.
Nutanix (NTNX) closed down more than -6% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock from overweight to neutral.
TechnoGlass (TGLS) closed down more than -4% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $225 million-$245 million from a previous forecast of $265 million-$305 million.
Veeva Systems (VEEV) closed down more than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the stock from buy to neutral.
CoreWeave (CRWV) closed up more than +11% after Anthropic PBC agreed to rent data center space from the company.
Shake Shack (SHAK) closed up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform with a $120 price target.
Earnings Report(4/13/2026)
Atlantic International Corp (ATLN), Fastenal Co (FAST), FB Financial Corp (FBK), Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The (GS), Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN), NextNRG Inc (NXXT).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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