The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.63% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.78%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are down -0.60%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are down -0.69%.
Stock indexes are slipping today as crude oil prices rose more than +2% to a 4-week high ahead of tonight’s deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire or face an escalation in the war. Markets are watching for signs of a breakthrough amid a flurry of diplomacy ahead of President Trump’s 8 PM EST deadline tonight. Mr Trump insists that any deal must ensure unhindered transit through the Strait of Hormuz or he will destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US military is preparing for possible attacks on energy targets in Iran.
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Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran. Crude rose more than +2% today after Axios reported that the US attacked military targets on Kharag Island today and Israel told Iranians to refrain from using their country’s railway network. Furthermore, Iran continued attacks in the Persian Gulf, further reducing the prospects for peace.
Today’s US economic news was supportive for stocks after February, with new orders for capital goods, non-defense ex-aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, rising +0.6% m/m, stronger than expected by +0.5% m/m.
Dovish comments today from New York Fed President John Williams were supportive of stocks, as he said the outlook for underlying price pressures in the US was largely unchanged, despite his expectation that higher energy costs stemming from the war in Iran would boost overall inflation. He said he estimates core inflation will increase by only one or two tenths of a percentage point.
Markets are giving a +25% discount to a +3 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
There was a mixed trend in foreign stock markets today. Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.249%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed +0.26% higher. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.03%.
interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) are unchanged today. The 10-year T-note yield is unchanged at 4.331%. Prices of T-notes recovered from early losses and were little changed after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said that despite his expectations of higher energy costs stemming from the war in Iran, the outlook for underlying price pressures in the US was largely unchanged. Additionally, safe-haven demand for T-notes has surged ahead of President Trump’s deadline tonight to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to Iran.
Today’s rally in WTI crude oil is more than +2% to 4-week high, which is boosting inflation expectations and is negative for T-notes. Additionally, supply pressure is weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $119 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week, starting with an auction of $58 billion of 3-year T-notes today.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. 10-year German Bund yields are up +4.6bp to 3.038%. 10-year UK gilt yields are up +4.4bp to 4.876%.
The Eurozone April Sentix investor confidence index fell by -16.1 to a 2.5-year low of -19.2, weaker than expectations of -8.0.
The Eurozone March S&P composite PMI was revised down +0.2 to 50.7 from 50.5 previously reported.
ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said the ECB may have to raise interest rates several times if the Iran war drags on.
The UK March S&P Services PMI dropped by -0.7 to an 11-month low of 50.5, down from a previously reported 51.2.
The swaps are discounting a 58% chance of a +25bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Airline stocks and cruise line operators are falling today, crude oil prices are up more than +2% to a 4-week high, fuel costs are rising and corporate profits are being cut. Carnival (CCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) are down more than -3%, and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is down more than -2%. Additionally, American Airlines Group (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Alaska Air Group (ALK), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are down more than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving lower today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2%. Coinbase Global (COIN), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -2%. Additionally, Strategy& (MSTR) is down more than -1%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down -0.22%.
Homebuilders prices are falling today after Seaport Global Securities downgraded the sector. Lennar (LEN), KB Home (KBH), and PulteGroup (PHM) are down more than -2% after being double-downgraded from buy to sell. DR Horton (DHI) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are also down more than -2% after Seaport Global Securities downgraded the shares from buy to neutral.
Managed care stocks are climbing today after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services finalized a 2.48% rate hike for health insurers in 2027. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up more than +7% to lead the Dow Jones Industrials, and Humana (HUM) and CVS Health (CVS) are up more than +5%. Additionally, Elevance Health (ELV) is up over +3%, Centene (CNC) is up over +2% and Molina Healthcare (MOH) is up over +0.35%.
ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) is among the losers on the Nasdaq 100, down more than -4% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.
Apple (AAPL) led the losers in the Dow Jones Industrials, falling more than -3% after Nikkei Asia reported that the company is experiencing setbacks in the engineering testing phase of its foldable iPhone, which could push back its production and shipment schedules.
Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) is down more than -3% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock from buy to neutral.
First Interstate BancSystem (FIBK) is down more than -2% after UBS downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $30.
ASML Holding NV (ASML) fell more than 1% after U.S. lawmakers unveiled legislation aimed at tightening restrictions on chip-tool exports to China.
Phillips 66 (PSX) fell more than -1% after saying its Q1 results were hit by nearly $900 million in pre-tax mark-to-market losses due to rising commodity prices, impacting its short positions.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up more than +12% among the gainers in the S&P 500, and it has entered into an equity syndication agreement with Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Limad Holding’s vehicle to support its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.
FuboTV (FUBO) is up more than +5% after Barrington Research upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $16.
CF Industries Holdings (CF) is up more than +4% after RBC Capital Markets raised its price target on the stock from $100 to $125.
Broadcom (AVGO) is among the gainers on the Nasdaq 100, up more than +3% after announcing a long-term agreement with Google to develop and supply tensor processing units and confirming plans to power some of Anthropic’s operations.
Income Report(4/7/2026)
Ehr Test Systems (AEHR), Ames National Corp (ATLO), Greenbrier Cos Inc/The (GBX), Kura Sushi USA Inc (KRUS), OP Bancorp (OPBK), Phoenix Education Partners Inc (PXED), Skillsoft Corp (SKIL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) any positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. Please see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here for more information.
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