this week
This was one of those weeks that we have seen on several occasions last year (and especially since late October) where markets are worried about artificial intelligence (AI). There were two aspects of concern:
- AI as a disruptor: Anthropic’s new AI legal tool sparked a selloff in software (including private markets) in particular, over fears that AI would disrupt their businesses.
- AI is expensive:GOOG announces plans double Its capital spending in 2026 is pegged at $175-$185 billion, while AMZN plans to increase capital spending by nearly 60% to $200 billion in 2026, reigniting concerns about the potential profitability of AI.
In addition to AI, there were also three negative(ish) labor market reports (all with caveats):
- The ADP showed the private sector added fewer jobs (+22,000) in January (+45,000) than expected. But Revised monthly profits have improved and stabilized at low levels from last spring.
- Initial claims rose by more than expected (231,000) (212,000), But This may be partly due to winter storm ferns and unusually cold weather.
- JOLTS job openings fall 700,000 less than expected But It doesn’t match private data like Indeed, and the hiring rate increased while the layoff rate remained stagnant at a very low level.
So, after the bounce today, software stocks are down 9% for the week, the Nasdaq-100® is down 2% (blue line), and 10-year Treasury yields are down ~5bp to 4.2% (black line).
next week
Here are 5 events I’m looking forward to next week:
- January nonfarm jobs report on Wednesday
- January CPI report on Friday
- December Retail Sales Tuesday
- Q4 Employment Cost Index on Tuesday
- January NFIB Small Business Optimism Tuesday