this week
Geopolitical tensions around Greenland rose and then subsided this week, causing the good news to disappear from the inflation and spending data.
Notably, both headline and core PCE inflation (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) came in at 2.8% in November and have been essentially flat since August as inflation may be nearing its peak. This is helped by the fact that core goods inflation has also moderated, indicating that tariff-related inflation may also peak soon. On the consumer front, real consumer spending on broad-based spending, including discretionary categories (entertainment, restaurants and hotels) grew at a solid +0.3% monthly pace in October and November, suggesting resilient consumer demand.
After declining early in the week, the market rallied from Wednesday, leading both the Nasdaq-100® (blue line) and 10-year Treasury yields (black line) to remain flat for the week.
next week
Here are the top shows I’m watching next week:
1. Fed decision and comments on Wednesday (97% probability no change)
2A. MSFT, META, TSLA report fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday
2B. AAPL’s fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday
3. December producer price inflation on Friday