this week
Once again, developments in the Iran conflict impacted the markets and economic data began to capture the impact of the conflict.
In positive news, negotiations for a ceasefire began this week:
- monday: President Trump posted that the US and Iran had “a very good and productive conversation … regarding the resolution of hostilities,” which Iran later denied.
- Tuesday: America sent a 15-point plan to Iran for a ceasefire, which Iran rejected.
- Wednesday: Iran is responding with a five-point plan for a ceasefire, which includes reparations and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Thursday: President Trump posted that he was suspending attacks on Iranian power plants for 10 days, until April 6, because “negotiations are ongoing and … going very well.”
Although the two sides appear distant, these early stage talks were seen as somewhat positive, helping Brent oil prices rise from a high of $119 a barrel to now below $115.
Higher oil prices are beginning to be reflected in economic data, with input and output prices for manufacturing and services rising in the preliminary March S&P PMI, and companies seeing “demand impacts from additional uncertainty arising from the conflict and the impact on the cost of living.”
Despite these initial talks, there appears to be no end in sight to the conflict, with the Nasdaq-100® down 3% this week, pushing it into a correction (down at least 10% from its highs), and 10-year Treasury yields rising 5 basis points to more than 4.4%.
next week
Here are the top shows I’m watching next week:
- Tuesday: Jolts Job Openings (February)
- Wednesday: Retail Sales (February), ISM and S&P Manufacturing PMI (March)
- Thursday: unemployment allowance
- Friday: Nonfarm Jobs Report (March), ISM and S&P Services PMI (March)
