Estimate ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when actual data deviates from expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input into the market reaction is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we may have a range of estimates, most may be clustered at the upper limit of the forecast range, so even if the data falls inside the range of the estimate but at the lower limit of the range, it may still produce a surprise effect.
Non-Farm Payrolls
- Estimate range from -25K to 125K
- 50K-75K range is most clustered
- 60K consensus
unemployment rate
- 4.5% (26%)
- 4.4% (67%) – consensus
- 4.3% (7%)
Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y
- 3.8% (39%) – consensus
- 3.7% (39%) – consensus
- 3.6% (18%)
- 3.5% (4%)
Average Hourly Income M/M
- 0.4% (26%)
- 0.3% (63%) – consensus
- 0.2% (9%)
- 0.1% (2%)
Today is Good Friday and most markets are closed, so unless we get a big divergence, I would not expect much reaction from the market. Good data is still mostly ignored because the longer the US-Iran conflict drags on, the greater the impact it is likely to have on economic activity. On the other hand, weak data, especially regarding the labor market, could heighten growth concerns and increase negative sentiment.
