UPDATE: 2026 A US F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran during the ongoing conflict, and while one crew member was quickly recovered, the other, a weapons systems officer reportedly at the rank of colonel, survived ejection but was injured and evaded capture for nearly 36 hours in mountainous terrain while Iranian forces and civilians searched for him, reportedly offering incentives for his capture went; The US then conducted a large-scale, high-risk special operations rescue mission involving multiple aircraft and support assets, successfully pulled him out aliveUS officials said there were no American deaths, although Iranian sources claimed additional US aircraft were downed during the operation, reflecting the uncertainty and contradictory narratives typical of active conflict situations.
That American fighter was wounded and walked 7 km from the downed plane, getting out of danger and finding a place to hide. A long and difficult 36-hour life-or-capture saga.
was told earlier: :
This is not a one-sided war. Iran has shown it can still retaliate. Iranian fire downed an American F-15E, an A-10 was also hit during a rescue effort, and the broader conflict has now injured 365 American service members and killed 13, according to Pentagon data reported by the AP. Iran is still using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, and Reuters reported that US intelligence thinks Tehran is unlikely to loosen its grip on the waterway any time soon.
The search for the airman missing from the downed F-15 is still ongoing and I hope he finds his way to peace and returns to his family.
But in the last 48 hours, Iran has also suffered a major blow. There were attacks on a petrochemical field in southwestern Iran that injured five people, a shelling on a support building near the Bushehr nuclear plant that killed one person, air strikes on warehouses storing bottled water in western Iran, a Red Crescent relief warehouse in Bushehr was attacked, and earlier attacks damaged the new B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj. Separate Reuters reporting said one Iraqi was killed and at least five others were seriously injured in an airstrike on the Iranian side of the border. More broadly, Reuters, citing the IFRC and the Iranian Red Crescent, reported on March 27 that more than 1,900 people had been killed and at least 20,000 injured inside Iran since the beginning of the US-Israeli attacks.
An improvement to the accuracy regarding Iran’s targeting of Oracle (ticker: ORCL) in Dubai is also important. Oracle items should be reduced. Dubai officials said there were no injuries after debris fell on the front of two buildings, including Oracle’s Dubai office, due to aerial interception. This is more careful and more accurate than saying that Iran directly attacked Oracle’s headquarters. The stock is still down 57% from its ATH from 05 Sep 2025, so not sure if he cares about that small Dubai hit vs other concerns.
And here is my simple market approach:
stock. My reading is mixed, but definitely not automatic crash mode, like many of the voices I’m hearing on social media say. Global stocks were uniformly mixed rather than down this week, but fuel-sensitive sectors such as airlines and transportation remain vulnerable as oil surges. Energy names may remain better. There’s no guarantee for defense stocks here either, as US defense stocks actually underperformed in March as investors opened up a crowded “struggle buy” trade. Stocks like Intel are more bullish than bearish, so a downside could be seen, but we’ll have to see if it’s sustained (e.g. Intel is defending $50 per share).
USD ($). The pattern has been simple: bad war headlines help the USD as investors flee to safety, while expectations of a ceasefire weaken it again. So we still have the US dollar strengthening on fears of renewed tensions and softening when expectations of a ceasefire briefly rose.
Oil. This is still the market with the most obvious upside risk. Oil called short sellers ‘April Fools’!” as it surged more than 14% from April 01 to 02. Oil prices jumped after Trump’s latest threats, and intelligence assessments say Iran is unlikely to give up its Hormuz leverage any time soon. If the Strait remains squeezed, oil remains the most obvious pressure point for the global economy.
Sleep Gold is supported by fear, but not in a straight line. Gold may rise when the US dollar weakens, but it may also fall when investors rush into cash. So the better way to think about sleep here is “supported but unstable”, not “guaranteed every day”.
Your pocket at home. The first hit is usually fuel, flights and delivery costs. The second hit has been on groceries and household items. Higher energy prices are already pushing up factory input costs, air freight rates and food-price pressures. It also noted that jet fuel has reached nearly $220 a barrel in Europe, which adds up to the expense of airline tickets, and natural gas prices are rising in Europe and Asia, which could drive up electricity bills. At the same time, the Fed said on April 1 that households and companies are still viewing the oil shock as short-term rather than permanent, so the pain is real, but it has not yet translated into a full demand decline.
My plain-English conclusion is this: If the war remains hot and the Strait of Hormuz constrained, oil is the clearest winner, the USD remains fear-quoted, gold remains volatile, and households feel it through gasoline, flights, utilities, and later food. If diplomacy suddenly picks up pace, stocks could jump sharply and the dollar could give back some of its safe-haven premium.
