West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell nearly 9% on Monday, falling below $100/barrel and surpassing the $90.00 level after tracing one of the widest intraday ranges in modern oil market history. Prices surged above $101.00 in early trading as Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran expired, rallying violently to a low of $84.00 in one session and moving back toward $90.00 for the rest of the day. The high-to-low range of roughly $17 has been dwarfed in recent sessions, and the recovery from the low has stalled in a fluctuating intraday band.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran had a “very good and productive conversation” about a “complete and comprehensive resolution” of hostilities, and directed the Pentagon to suspend all military attacks on Iranian power plants for five days. The announcement reversed his 48-hour ultimatum issued on Saturday, in which he threatened to “destroy” Iran’s power grid if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened.
Tehran denied that any talks were underway, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated that it would target energy and desalination infrastructure across the region in the event of an attack on Iranian power plants. The contradiction between Trump’s de-escalation tone and Iran’s denial kept the market on edge till afternoon.
On the supply side, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) record 400 million barrel coordinated reserve release announced on March 11 is starting to flow, with the US contributing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over an estimated 120-day delivery window. Goldman Sachs raised its WTI forecast to $98 for March and $105 for April, noting that flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at about 5% of normal volumes. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miron said on Monday it was too early to assess the inflation impact of the energy price shock and he still believed rate cuts were necessary to support the labor market.
wti 5 minute chart
technical analysis
In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL is trading at $89.29. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the price remains well below the 200-period exponential moving average near $93.40, keeping the intraday trend under pressure despite intermittent bounces. The latest decline from the $90.50 area coincides with the retreat of the Stochastic RSI from an overbought position above 90 towards 30, which signals a weakening of the upside momentum and strengthening of the risk of further downside if below the long-term intraday average.
Initial support is emerging at $88.75, the latest reaction low, exposing a break of $86.50 before a deeper zone at $85.70. At the top, immediate resistance sits at $90.00, followed by $90.50, where earlier rallies were halted, with a strong barrier at $91.00 that would need to give way to the 200-period EMA cluster to challenge higher. As long as the price trades below $90.50, supply is likely to increase, while a sustained move above this band will reduce the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the help of AI tools.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI oil is a type of crude oil that is sold in international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, which is one of three major types including Brent and Dubai crude. WTI is also called “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that can be easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed through the Cushing Hub, considered the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the oil market and the price of WTI is often quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the price of WTI oil. Thus, global growth can be a driver of rising demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, war and sanctions can disrupt supplies and impact prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil producing countries, are another major price driver. The value of the US dollar affects the price of WTI crude oil, as oil is primarily traded in US dollars, thus a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventory reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories it could indicate increased demand, sending oil prices higher. Higher inventory may reflect increased supply, driving prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA report the next day. Their results are generally similar, coming within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil producing countries that collectively set production quotas for member countries in twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to reduce quotas, it could tighten supply, causing oil prices to rise. When OPEC increases production it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
