July Arabica Coffee (KCN25) closed on Friday +1.05 ( +0.26%), and July Ice Robusta Coffee (RMN25) -12 (-0.22%) was closed.
Coffee prices were mixed on Friday, in which Arabia posted at a 7-week height. Concerns about a small Brazil coffee crop are pushing Arab prices more. On Tuesday, Robobank predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 Arabica coffee crop would be 38.1 million bags from Y/Y to 38.1 million bags, creating dry weather in the major Arabica -Uging areas, which reduces the coffee trees flowers significantly. However, Robusta is under pressure on coffee when Rabobank predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 Robusta coffee crop +7.3% Y/Y will climb a record of 24.7 million bags.
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Brazil can cause coffee yield due to low rainfall and after reporting Somar Metorologia last Monday, it is helpful for prices that Brazil’s largest Arabica Coffee Meenas Gerace received 17.9 mm rainfall in the week ended April 12, or 89%of the historic average. In addition, Somar Ulkapind said on Thursday that the possibility of rain in Brazil’s coffee-furrow areas look limited to next week.
Current coffee supply is a slowdown for increased prices. The ice-monitor Robusta Coffee Environmentalies reached a high level of 2-week-4,272 lots of 2-week high-week on Thursday, and on Friday, the ice-monitor aerica coffee inventors reached 2–1/4 months high of 822,021 bags of 822,021 bags.
The ongoing global trade is reducing the prices of most commodities including turmoil. In addition, there is a concern that the demand for coffee will be damaged as high tariffs increase the prices of coffee for American consumers.
The possibility of supply supports the prices of coffee. On 9 April, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s march green coffee export -26% y/y fell to 2.95 million bags. On 28 January, Brazil’s official crop forecast agency Conb estimated that Brazilian’s 2025/26 coffee crop -4.4% Y/Y will fall to a 3 -year low to 51.81 million bags. Conb cut the estimate of its 2024 Brazil Coffee crop in a September -1% to 54.2 million bags from the September estimate of 54.8 million bags.
Coffee is also supported after Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee co-operative cocoxupe, said that last month, high temperatures in Brazil and below normal rains will negatively affect coffee yield this year. Brazilian Arabica is the world’s largest producer.
On the negative side for coffee, Marex Solutions said on March 7 that they expect a global coffee surplus in the 2025/26 season, widening from +200,000 bags to 1.2 million bags in the 2024/25 season.
Last year, the effect of dried El Nino weather may cause long -term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Rainfall in Brazil has been below the average continuously since last April, damaging coffee trees during all important flowering phase and reduce the possibilities for Brazil’s 2025/26 billion coffee crops. According to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden, Brazil has been facing the most dry weather since 1981. In addition, the world’s second largest Arabia producer Columbia, gradually recovering from El Nino-Spurade Drought last year.
Robusta coffee has low Robusta production support. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 crop year declined to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam said that 2024 Vietnam coffee export -17.1% y/y fell to 1.35 mmt. In addition, on March 12, the Vietnam Coffee and Coco Association cut their 2024/25 Vietnam Coffee Productions in 26.5 million bags from December 28 million bag. Finally, the Vietnam Customs Department said on Friday that Vietnam’s public -coffee exports were below -15.3% Y/Y to 495,780 MT. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta coffee producer.
The news of large global coffee exports is a slowdown for prices. Conb said on 4 February that Brazil’s 2024 coffee exports +28.8% Y/Y increased a record 50.5 million bags. However, ICO reported on 6 February that Dec Global Coffee Exports -10.73 million bags fell at 12.4% y/y, and Oct -DEC global coffee exports fell 32.25 million bags at –0.8% y/y.
On December 18, USDA’s biennial report was mixed for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) estimated that world coffee production +4.0% y/y will increase to 174.855 million bags in 2024/25, +1.5% increase in arabica production will increase by 97.845 million bags and Robusta production in 77.01 million bags will increase by +7.5%. The USDA FAS predicts that at the end of 2024/25, the stock will fall from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24 to a 25 -year low of a 25 -year low of 20.867 million bags. Separate, on November 22, the USDA FAS placed Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production below the previous forecast of 69.9 mm at 66.4 mm. The USDA’s FAS projected Brazil’s coffee inventions on 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.
For the 2025/26 marketing year, on December 17, Volcafe cut its 2025/26 Brazil Arabica Coffee Productions in 34.4 million bags, after a crop tour, the severity of an expanded drought in Brazil was detected in Brazil by a September estimate after a crop tour. Volcafe performs a global 2025/26 billion coffee deficiency -8.5 million bag, which is more than a -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth year of the fifth consecutive year is the fifth year.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
The idea and opinion expressed here are the idea and opinion of the author and not necessarily Nasdac, Inc.
