Bitcoin (BTC) could see a “surprise move” that would send the price of BTC soaring – but not until 2026.
key points:
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New analysis concludes that Bitcoin’s next price bottom will take until 2026.
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The decline in trading volumes makes a return to a short-term bull market unlikely.
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Selling pressure is decreasing, and as a result the price may rise to $99,000.
BTC Price Bottom: Not Until 2026?
In his latest YouTube analysis on Thursday, crypto commentator Jason Pizzino predicted a near one-year low for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin may not reach its long-term low until October 2026.
Summarizing current market trends, Pizzino cited community expectations that BTC/USD will hit bounce territory at some point during the coming 11 months.
“Like I said, we’ve got some time,” he said.
“I think it’s still too early to know whether it will be a low that will then push to a new all-time high or a low that will then push to a bigger low because of where we sit in the 18-year cycle.”
Pizzino referenced risk-asset behavior as it relates to the 18-year cycle theory associated with real estate markets.
To move into the upside zone, they specifically focused on the Bitcoin trading volume decline similar to late 2022 and 2023, which is the springboard for the current bull market.
“And that’s where these shocking measures happen because the majority is not watching,” he said.
Pizzino also sees little likelihood of a major trend change in the short term, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) forming stiff resistance overhead and trader risk appetite nowhere to be seen, as shown by a balanced long/short ratio.
Sellers hold the key to recovering $99,000
On the topic of investor behavior, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant sees a possible period of consolidation before a new market frenzy.
Connected: Bitcoin retail flows on Binance ‘collapse’ to record low of 400 BTC in 2025
In their latest weekly report sent to Cointelegraph on Tuesday, titled “The Calm Before the Volume,” researchers flagged a decline in exchange flows from large-volume institutions.
“The share of the big players’ total deposits has declined from a 24-hour high of 47% in mid-November to 21% today,” the report said.
“At the same time, the average deposit has decreased by 36% from 1.1 BTC in November 22nd to 0.7 BTC currently. Selling pressure is reduced when large players reduce their transfers to crypto exchanges.”
CryptoQuant predicted that a continued lack of selling pressure could take BTC/USD back to $99,000.
“This level is the lower band of the Trader On-Chain Realized Price Band, which is a price resistance during bearish markets. After this level, key price resistances are $102K (one-year moving average) and $112K (Trader On-Chain Realized Price),” it said.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investing and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investing and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making decisions. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
