- The unemployment rate in Canada fell to 6.9% in June.
- After the release of USD/CAD data, 1.3650 came into the region.
Statistics Canada said on Friday that the unemployment rate in Canada was reduced by 6.9% in June, below the market consensus.
During this period, the net change in employment exceeded 83.1k, in May a sufficient increase after 8.8k profit. Data also indicated that the participation rate increased from 65.3% to 65.4% and average wages per hour below 3.5% in the previous month to 3.2% yoy.
Market reaction
Canadian Dollar (CAD) is now part of its earlier loss on Friday, indicating the USD/CAD to reach the mid -3600s in view of the Canadian Labor Market Report.
Canadian dollar price today
The table below shows a percentage change of Canadian dollar (CAD) against major currencies listed today. Canadian dollar was the strongest compared to the British pound.
| USD | EUR | Gbp | JPY | Paaji | Worship | Aristocratic federal | Chef | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.53% | 0.41% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.25% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.48% | 0.38% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.20% | -0.13% | |
| Gbp | -0.53% | -0.48% | -0.10% | -0.52% | -0.47% | -0.23% | -0.64% | |
| JPY | -0.41% | -0.38% | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.46% | -0.19% | -0.53% | |
| Paaji | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.52% | 0.40% | -0.01% | 0.22% | -0.13% | |
| Worship | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.47% | 0.46% | 0.00% | 0.35% | -0.12% | |
| Aristocratic federal | -0.25% | -0.20% | 0.23% | 0.19% | -0.22% | -0.35% | -0.38% | |
| Chef | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.64% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.38% |
The heat map shows a percentage change of major currencies against each other. The base posture is picked up from the left column, while the quotation posture is raised from the top line. For example, if you take Canadian dollars from the left column and go to the US dollar along the horizontal line, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (Aadhaar)/USD (quotes).
Below this section was published as preview of Canadian Labor Market Report at 05:00 GMT.
- The unemployment rate in Canada is expected to increase further in June.
- The labor market may and the cooling additional rate cut can be favored.
- Canadian dollars were around 1.3600 against the US $ 1.3600.
On Friday, the Statistics will release the results of the Canadian Canadian Labor Force Survey. Market investors estimate that the report will come on the soft side, which may encourage Bank of Canada (BOC) to resume its spontaneous cycle.
After the same step in April and 25-basis-point cut in March, BOC kept its policy rate at 2.75% in its June meeting. Back in last meeting, Central Bank justifies its decision Rate Stable due to the uncertainty of the height around the White House’s irregular trade policy.
The Central Bank also suggested that another rate cut in July may be necessary if tariffs cause the economy to weaken. Governor TIFF McCalem reiterated that the impacts of the tariffs, uncertainty about the consequences of business negotiations, and any new business measures would reduce the capacity of the bank further.
He noticed that, although the growth of the first quarter had exceeded expectations, trade investment and domestic expenses remained largely under control, and warned that the growth in the second quarter would be quite weak, a scene shared by economists predicted that there was a possibility of a trend in this control.
According to Statistics Canada, employment changes increased by 8.8k jobs in May, construction at 7.4K profit in April, while the unemployment rate increased to 7.0%for the third consecutive month.
In its most recent meeting, the Central Bank said that the labor market had weakened, with loss of jobs centered in trade-intensive areas. The BOC said that employment was still held in less areas for trade, but warned that businesses were generally indicating plans to hire.
What can we expect from the next Canadian unemployment rate print?
Consent among the market participants, Canada’s unemployment rate has increased to a slight increase of up to 7.1% in June, more than 7.0% in May. Additionally, investor Forecast The economy will not add any job in a single month, which reverses the growth of 8.8k of May. It is worth remembering that average per hour wage, a proxy for wage inflation, was held stable at 3.5% yoy for the third time in a line in May.
According to TD Securities analysts: “Canadian labor market will be under pressure in June, to be unchanged with total employment forecasting, UE rate increases by 0.1 pp to 7.1%. To recruit a sense of economic uncertainty, more sorting in goods sector with PMIS is indicated.
When is Canada unemployment rate released, and how can it affect USD/CAD?
Canadian unemployment The rate for June with the Labor Force Survey will be released at 12:30 GMT on Friday.
The BOC may probably reduce its interest rate in its next meeting due to the cooling of the labor market, which may also lead to some sales pressure on Canadian dollars (CADs). It should support the ongoing rebound in the USD/CAD which was sparked last week.
Senior analyst Pablo Piovano FXSTITT In notes that Canadian dollars had abandoned some of their recent benefits, due to which USD/CADs had increased from previous levels, which were in the beginning of the week in the beginning of the week at 1.3550–1.3540 bands in early October 2024.
Piovano indicates that the revival of recession tone may motivate the USD/CAD to see again at 1.3538 below 2025, which was marked on 16 June. Once this level is approved, followed by the September 2024 trough of 1.3418 and the weekly base of 1.3358 to 31 January 2024.
He has mentioned that if bulls gain strong confidence, it can run the spot value for its provisional barrier on the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.3755, followed by the monthly sealing of 1.3797 on June 23, and then the May of 1.4015 recorded on 13 May.
Piovano notes that, when considering a comprehensive picture, the pair and the possibility of loss were below its major 200-day SMA at 1.4038.
“Also, speed Indicator Appear mixed: the relative power index (RSI) becomes about 50, while the average directional index (ADX) is about 17, which indicates some disadvantages of motivation in the current trend, ”they say.
employment
Labor market status is a major element for assessing the health of an economy and thus a major driver for currency evaluation. There are positive implications for high employment, or low unemployment, consumer expenses and thus economic development, increase the value of local currency. In addition, a very tight labor market – a condition that lacks workers to fill open positions – can also be implicated at inflation levels and thus monetary policy leads to high labor supply and high demand.
Salary -increasing speed in an economy is important for policy makers. High wage increase means that homes have more money to spend, usually a price increase in consumer goods. Unlike more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a major component of underlying and constant inflation because the increase in salary is unlikely to be undone. While deciding on monetary policy, central banks around the world pay attention to the data of development.
Every central bank which provides weight labor market conditions depends on its objectives. In some central banks, there are mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling the level of inflation clearly. For example, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is the only mandate inflation under control. Nevertheless, and whatever mandate they have, despite that, the status of labor market is an important factor for policy makers, which has its importance as a gauge of economy and their direct relationship for inflation.
Canadian Dollar FAQ
Bank of Canada (BOC), the major factor running Canadian dollars (CAD), is the level of the price of the health, inflation and business balance of Canada, the biggest exports of Canada, the health of the health vs. Canada’s export vs. Other factors include market sentiments-Investors are taking more risky assets (risk-per) or demanding safe-description (risk-closer)-with the risk of risk-CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also an important factor affecting Canadian dollars.
Bank of Canada (BOC) has a significant impact by determining the level of interest rates on Canadian dollars that banks can lend to each other. This affects the level of interest rates for all. The main goal of BOC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting the interest rates up or down. The relatively higher interest rates for CAD are positive. Bank of Canada can also use quantitative spontaneity and tightening to affect the credit position with former CAD-negative and subsequent CAD-positive.
The price of oil is a major factor affecting the value of Canadian dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s largest export, so the price of oil has immediate effect on the CAD price. Generally, the CAD also increases if the price of oil increases, as the total demand for currency increases. If the price of oil falls, it is the opposite case. High oil prices are also as a result of the greater possibility of a positive business balance, which is also the support of the CAD.
While inflation was always traditionally considered as a negative factor for a currency because it reduces the value of money, the opposite has actually been a case in modern times with a discount of cross -border capital controls. High inflation motivates central banks to put in interest rates that attracts more capital flow from global investors who are looking for an attractive place to keep their money. This increases the demand for local currency, which is Canadian dollars in the case of Canada.
Macroeconomic data releases the health of the economy and can affect Canadian dollars. Indicators like GDP, manufacturing and services PMI, employment and consumer spirit survey can all affect the direction of CAD. A strong economy is good for Canadian dollars. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, but it can encourage the bank of Canada to keep interest rates, leading to a strong currency. If the economic data is weak, however, CAD is likely to fall.
