The December Ice NY Cocoa (CCZ25) was closed on Tuesday -249 (-3.56%), and December Ice London Cocoa #7 (CAZ25) -10 (-2.47%) was closed.
Cocoa prices fell rapidly on Tuesday, in which NY Coco posted the closest-cum-cum-cum-cum and London Cocoa of 19 months. Coco delivery in the world’s second largest cocoa producer Ghana has increased and weigh at prices. Coco arrival for ports at Ghana in four weeks ended on September 4 reached 50,440 tonnes compared to about 11,000 MT in the same period in 2024.
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Coco prices have also been under pressure in the last seven weeks that high coco prices and tariffs can reduce the demand for chocolate. Chocolate manufacturer Lindt and Spruengali AG reduced their margin guidance for the year in July, as the first half chocolate sales due to a major decline. Additionally, chocolate manufacturer Barry Calibot AG reduced the guidance of its sales quantity for the second time in July, citing the prices of high cocoa continuously. The company recorded a decline in the amount of sales for the entire year and declined its sales volume for a period of March -May, decline in the largest quarter in a decade.
This year, an approach to a better cocoa crop in Ivory Coast is also a slowdown for prices. Chocolate manufacturer Mondeles recently stated that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is a five -year average and 7% above “physically high” compared to previous year crop. The main crop crop of Ivory Coast is expected to begin next month, and farmers are optimistic about the quality of the crop.
Coco has gained some support from the recession in the speed of cocoa export from the world’s largest cocoa producer Ivory Coast. Monday’s official data revealed that the farmers of Ivory Coast sent 1.82 mm to Coco to port from 1 October to 28 September, up to +3.4% from last year, but below the huge +35% increase in December.
Ice-monitor cocoa inventories held at American ports are helpful for tight cocoa inventory prices, which fell at a 5-month low of 1,980,232 bags last Friday.
Cocoa prices had earlier reached 2+ high levels last month, on anxiety that cold and dry weather in the cocoa-producing areas of West Africa is slowing down the growth of the plant on the coast of the ivory coast and spreading black pod disease in Ghana and Nigeria. According to the Commodity Weather Group, West Africa was the most drought on record since 1979 for Coco. Lack of rain may affect the retention of cocoa pods on trees before the main crop crop starting in October.
The quality concern about the middle-crop cocoa of the Ivory Coast, which is currently being cut through September, are supporting prices. According to Robobank, the poor quality of the middle-crop between the Ivory Coast is partially attributed to the late rain in the region, which limits crop growth. The middle-crop is smaller than two annual cocoa crops, usually beginning in April. The average estimates for this year’s Ivory Coast Mid -Falsa are 400,000 mounts, which is -9% of the previous year’s 440,000 tonnes.
Another auxiliary factor for cocoa is small cocoa production in Nigeria, which is the fifth largest coco producer in the world. The Cocoa Association Projects of Nigeria will fall from Nigeria’s 2025/26 cocoa production 2024/25 The estimated 344,000 metric tonnes to -11% y/y to 305,000 MT for the crop year. In the relevant news, Nigeria reported that its July Coco’s export -22% y/y fell to 13,579 MT.
The weakness in the demand for global cocoa has been a recession factor for coco prices. The European Coco Association reported on July 17 that Q2 European cocoa dropped from piece -7.2% y/y to 331,762 mt, a major decline from the expectations of -5% y/y. In addition, Coco Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian Coco Grind -16.3% Y/Y fall to 176,644 MT, the smallest amount for Q2 in 8 years. The North American Q2 Coco Grinding -2.8% y/y fell to 101,865 mt, a small decline compared to the decline in Asia and Europe.
Ghana is a slowdown for high cocoa production coco prices by Ghana. On 1 July, the Ghana Coco Board estimated 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop, in 2024/25, 600,000 MT to 600,000 MT to 600,000 MT to +8.3% Y/Y will increase to 650,000.
On 30 May, the International Coco Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global Cocoa deficit from -494,000 MT to -441,000 tonnes of February estimate, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO said that 2023/24 cocoa production fell from 13.1% y/y to 4.380 mmt. The ICCO stated that the 2023/24 Global Cocoa Stock-to-Grinding Ratio fell to 27.0%at a 46-year low. Given further for 2024/25, ICCO on February 28, 2024 estimated the global coco surplus of 142,000 mounts, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also estimated that 2024/25 global cocoa production would increase from +7.8% y/y to 4.84 mmt.
On the date of publication, Rich Escpland did not have the positions mentioned in any securities mentioned in this article (either direct or indirectly). All information and data in this article is only for informative purposes. For more information, please see the Barkart Disclosure Policy here.
The idea and opinion expressed here are the idea and opinion of the author and not necessarily Nasdac, Inc.
