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A confidential report prepared for Iran’s presidency is raising a consequential question for Washington and its allies: Does the extraordinary level of public anger and support for systemic change justify a reassessment of whether the Islamic Republic may be more vulnerable to regime change than previously thought?
The classified document titled “What Iran Wants” reportedly found that only 9% of respondents supported maintaining the status quo, 53% called for fundamental or structural reforms and more than 19% supported completely changing the political system.
Overall, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed reportedly supported deep structural reform or replacement of the existing system – findings that could strengthen the argument that Iran’s political crisis has grown beyond dissatisfaction with individual leaders or policies.
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Protesters march in downtown Tehran, Iran, on Monday, Dec. 29, 2025. (Fars News Agency via AP)
IranWire reported on July 13 that it had obtained the document, which was compiled by Ali Rabiei, social adviser to President Massoud Pezeshkian and former government spokesman. According to the outlet, it was based on polling conducted by the Ara Opinion Research Center in May 2026 and circulated among institutions within Iran’s governing structure in June.
Miyan Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the report should prompt a fresh assessment of the possibility of political turmoil inside Iran.
“If anything, this research underscores the depth of Iranians’ anger,” Maleki said. “And that’s what makes it remarkable: Even for the regime’s own president, in a survey drawn up by his own pollsters, anger levels registered above 63%, far higher than the highest rate recorded by Gallup anywhere in the world, with 81% struggling to put food on the table and the majority expressing despair.”
Malecki cautioned that polling conducted under an authoritarian government cannot be considered accurate because respondents may fear consequences for expressing opposition.
“In a police state where expressing the wrong opinion can cost you your job, your freedom, or your life, respondents self-censor, which means these findings should be read as a floor, not a ceiling,” he said.
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In this photo obtained from Iran’s ISNA news agency, Mojtaba Khamenei (C), son of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, walks on a street in Tehran May 31, 2019. (Hamid Foroutan/ISNA/AFP via Getty Images)
The material obtained by IranWire did not cover the entire survey methodology. The report reportedly did not disclose how respondents were selected, who was questioned or whether the sample reflected Iran’s geographic and demographic composition.
Its findings therefore cannot be independently verified or considered a definitive measure of Iranian opinion. The report also cannot establish that discontent will turn into an organized movement capable of removing the government.
Nevertheless, its findings illustrate the accumulation of multiple pressures simultaneously.
According to IranWire, about 64% of respondents reported persistent anger, which is about 12% points higher than the previous government survey conducted in December 2025. Half reported hopelessness, about 48% reported sadness or depression and about 45% reported persistent fear or anxiety.
The economic crisis also appears to be the focus of public anger.
More than 81% faced severe or partial difficulty obtaining enough food, while 75% struggled to cover medical costs, Iranwire reported. Fifty-four percent said their income does not cover current household expenses, and only 8% reported earning enough to save.
Respondents blamed domestic governance more than international pressure. 46.9% attributed Iran’s economic problems to government incompetence, 26.3% blamed corruption, and 20.7% blamed foreign sanctions.
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Thousands of people gathered in Tehran’s Revolution Square carrying Iranian flags and posters of late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to protest US and Israeli attacks on Iran on May 30, 2026. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu)
This finding may be particularly important for the regime-change debate because it suggests that many Iranians do not primarily blame external powers for their deteriorating living conditions.
The document also points to a crisis of institutional trust. Roughly 60% reportedly distrusted key government institutions, while 61.2% negatively evaluated the ability of officials to solve Iran’s problems. Distrust in the government, parliament, judiciary and state television remains above 50%, IranWire reports.
However, the report’s recommendations reportedly focused on managing dissent rather than addressing demands for systemic change.
Rabiei urged state institutions to better explain the impact of sanctions, control the rhetoric used by authorities and religious platforms, project a more inclusive image through state television, and avoid policies that put the government in direct conflict with society.
Cars are burned on the street during a protest over the fall in the value of the currency in Tehran, Iran on January 8, 2026. (Stringer/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
IranWire’s follow-up analysis argued that the recommendations treated Iran’s crisis primarily as a communication and public-perception problem. According to the outlet, the report offered few concrete proposals related to institutional accountability, political liberalization or fundamental economic reform.
Maleki said the findings were consistent with the growing scale of unrest, citing demonstrations that have spread from more than 80 cities in 2017 to more than 200 cities in all 31 provinces this year, as he described a quadrupling of the number of attacks.
“Iranians have gone from being skeptical about another revolution to concluding that there is no alternative to any revolution, because reform has proven impossible,” Maleki said.
Yet the report does not address one of the biggest obstacles to regime change: The Islamic Republic has spent decades building institutions designed to monitor, deter, and violently suppress organized opposition.
Maleki said, “This regime was born by the revolution, by the revolutionaries.” “Stopping and crushing the next one is the only thing they really know how to do.”
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Buses are burned during protests in Tehran, Iran, January 21, 2026. (Majid Asgharipour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Yet he argued that further unrest was inevitable.
“So discontent will turn into renewed protests,” Maleki said. “The question is not if, but when, and whether anyone is prepared to stand with the Iranian people when that happens.”
