(RTTNews) – Crude oil fell on Wednesday as investors analyzed OPEC’s monthly report and compared it with the International Energy Agency’s latest forecast on demand and supply.
WTI crude oil for December delivery was last seen trading at $58.40 a barrel, down $2.62 (or 4.31%).
In its monthly report released today, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Russian oil output rose to 9.382 million barrels per day in October, up 47,000 bpd from September, but below Russia’s OPEC+ output quota for October at 9.481 million bpd.
It further said Kazakhstan’s oil output fell by 155,000 bpd last month to 1.707 million bpd, still above the OPEC+ quota of 1.529 million bpd set for October.
In a departure from its earlier predictions of a supply crisis, the group’s report showed that global oil supply will match demand in 2026, creating a more balanced oil market.
OPEC maintained its previous forecast, projecting strong growth in the global economy and global oil demand rising by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and at a slightly faster rate in 2026.
The group now estimates global supply exceeds demand by about 500,000 barrels a day, a reversal from its previous deficit forecast. However, OPEC has reduced its forecast for crude oil demand from OPEC+ member countries by 100,000 in 2026.
Notably, other forecasters predict supply exceeding demand by a large amount in 2026.
Recent forecasts from the IEA indicate that supply could exceed demand by about 4 million bpd in 2026.
In contrast to the IEA forecast, OPEC’s forecasts are at the high end of estimates, with a projected supply deficit in 2026 at the opposite end of the IEA’s estimate. The IEA’s updated outlook will be released on Thursday.
Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to end Russia’s war with Ukraine despite repeated requests, on October 22, US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russian oil corporations Rosneft and Lukoil and threatened to impose “penal tariffs” on countries purchasing Russian oil. The restrictions are scheduled to come into effect from November 21.
Major Russian oil buyers, China, India and Türkiye are looking away from Russia for potential suppliers. As a result, Russia is offering a $20 per barrel discount to the offer price. Before the sanctions, discounts were at about $12 a barrel.
Even as the bitter fighting between the two countries continues, with sanctions weighing heavily on Russia, the Russian envoy today announced that he is ready to resume talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey.
The government shutdown in the US entered its 43rd day today.
In a significant breakthrough, the Senate on Monday advanced a short-term funding bill to run the government as a result of weeks-long negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. The bill still requires the approval of the House of Representatives and the President.
The end of the longest shutdown in the US will bring new life to consumption along with the release of key economic data.
Since the US is the largest consumer of oil and energy, oil markets view these developments as positive.
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