Two Texas congressional candidates backed by millions of dollars in spending from interest groups tied to the cryptocurrency industry are set to run for US Senate and House of Representatives this week.
On Tuesday, Democratic voters in Texas’s 18th congressional district will decide between incumbent Al Green and challenger Christian Menefee in the November general election. Across the state, voters will choose between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
Both of Tuesday’s races are runoffs after neither candidate failed to win a majority in Texas’ March primaries. The crypto industry, through media spending by political action committees (PACs), has a stake in both races, which could influence congressional policy and composition in 2027.
As of Sunday, Protect Progress, an affiliate of Ripple- and Coinbase-backed Fairshake PAC, reported spending $5 million to support Menefee over Greene. The PAC spent $2.8 million on ads opposing Greene. Menefee also has the backing of the Blockchain Leadership Fund, a committee backed by Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs, though it had not reported any expenditures as of Monday.
Source: US Federal Election Commission
The outcome of the primaries could affect who ultimately wins Texas’s 18th District and one of the state’s two Senate seats in the November general election, potentially influencing which political party controls Congress in 2027. Under the Republican majority, lawmakers have passed major pieces of legislation supported by the crypto industry, including the Stablecoin Genius Act.
At least one ad funded by Protect Progress to support Menefee did not mention crypto or blockchain, but rather Greene’s opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump. Former Houston Chronicle opinion writer Bill King said in a local FOX26 segment that aired Sunday:
“I saw 12 television ads paid for by Protect Progress PAC yesterday […] And the same group of people are primarily funding Trump.
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The Fellowship PAC, funded by Wall Street firms Cantor Fitzgerald and Anchorage, reported spending $500,000 to support Paxton over Cornyn for the U.S. Senate seat. The spending came about 24 hours after Trump endorsed Paxton, saying Cornyn was “too late to endorse” him as the Republican nominee for president.
Prediction markets heavily favor Paxton and Menefee
The Kalshi prediction market gave its users 91% and 96% chances on event contracts favoring Menefee over Greene and Paxton over Cornyn, respectively.
Source: Kalash
The platform has consistently awarded event contracts in favor of the Democratic candidate since February, while Paxton’s chances exceeded 90% for the first time since Trump’s endorsement on Tuesday, and were around 96% at last look on Monday. The total volume of bets on that race was more than $16 million.
Rival forecasting market platform PolyMarket gave both candidates equal chances in Tuesday’s runoff.
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