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Let’s not get carried away here.
The chances of the Democrats winning the Senate are between almost impossible and non-existent.
And yet it has suddenly become a topic of much discussion in the media.
It’s like Rube Goldberg’s device: If this and that happen and this other long-shot thing somehow falls into place, the ball goes into the cup.
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Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. Senate Democrats, led by Trump, face an uphill battle to regain control of the chamber, despite significant midterm hurdles from the Trump administration. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Virtually everyone, including many Republicans I have spoken to privately, agrees that the Democrats will take the House in November. The difference may not be huge, given that most incumbents win reelection, but the opposition party taking control of the House, committees, and a storm of investigations will completely change the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
The latest NBC poll found 63 percent of those surveyed strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 67 percent strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling of the Iran war. Ouch.
But now mainstream pundits are so absorbed by such declining polling figures and the unpopularity of the war that they believe the Democrats can walk on water and possibly flood that with control of the Senate.
They’re also talking about Texas.
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I mean, come on. Remember the endless panic surrounding Beto O’Rourke, who lost for Senate and governor? Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s. And yet every couple of years we get “This is it! Texas is ready to go blue!”
I know, Democratic contender James Tallarico has raised a ton of money since CBS refused to air the Stephen Colbert interview.
And in politics you can never say never.
Much will depend on whether Senator John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP runoff. Cornyn is considered by many Republicans to be too moderate. But Paxton was impeached (then acquitted) in 2023 on charges including bribery, settled criminal fraud charges by paying restitution, and his wife divorced him after saying he was having an affair.
Incumbent Senator John Cornyn, R-Texas, (left) is facing off against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (right) in a bitter GOP primary runoff election. (Getty Images)
So yeah, it’s been a crazy year.
And yes, if the war ends, much will depend on the economy getting back on track – a cliché that rings true.
The New York Times examined this question in a piece filled with so many caveats that its corporate portion is completely covered:
“Of course, a blue wave is not guaranteed, and Democrats would not be assured of flipping two reliably Republican states, even if it happened. But a possible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.”
This is called walking on tiptoes in water. The carefully crafted Nate Cohn piece acknowledges that Democratic candidates must win seven of the seven competitive races. Seven out of seven!
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I mean, it’s as likely as the world is going to see the dark side of the moon.
Uh, let’s try another analogy.
The chances of winning the lottery seven out of seven are low.
Gas prices are less likely to drop suddenly. That’s why Trump contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told CNN that gas prices below $3 a gallon “may not happen until next year.”
The President says, “Completely wrong.”
So here is the summary.
Every Democrat in the Senate today represents a state that Joe Biden carried in 2020, as the party has performed very poorly in red states. (An example: When Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who drove Biden crazy, retired, he was replaced by Republican Jim Justice.)
And – here’s another warning from the Times! – Neither party was successful in overturning Two States that have swung politically to the other side since 2008.
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The assessment fundamentally depends on the quality of the Democratic candidates heading into the midterms.
In North Carolina, that’s former Governor Roy Cooper.
In Ohio, it is former senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat if Trump wins in 2024.
In Alaska, former representative Mary Peltola is already leading in the polls.
But main is strange. Governor Janet Mills was considered a strong contender. But she is trailing progressive first-time contender and military veteran Graham Platner 2 to 1 in the primary.
Plattner has admitted to wearing a Nazi tattoo. In 2021, CNN reported on a series of posts in which Plattner also called himself a communist, said rural Americans are “racist” and “stupid”, described all police officers as “bastards” and used the word “retard” several times. He says these were stupid jokes. And Elizabeth Warren campaigned with him over the weekend.
Sullivan Harbormaster Graham Plattner and Gov. Janet Mills are running in a heated Democratic primary race to take on Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in November. (Getty Images)
Plus, will either candidate be able to oust independent Republican Susan Collins?
At the same time, Democrats have to save seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
Even the staunchly non-partisan Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to Democrats, but that ranges from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, or Lean Republican to tossup. Not exactly a slam dunk.
But the Times story has started resonating on television.
“Republicans are starting to worry about losing the Senate,” the MS Now banner screamed.
The Times’ final defense: “If the blue wave materializes, Democrats have a chance to take control of the Senate.”
Subscribe to Howie’s Media Buzzmeter podcast, a look at the hottest stories of the day
But the thing is this. This is an off-year election. Let’s not forget: everything depends on voting.
If Trump voters become discouraged, many may sit home. If Democratic voters are irked, but not to the extent that they turn out at the polls themselves, this will reduce the effect.
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If politics were predictable, the abbots and diwans would have little material for their never-ending arguments.
Foot Note: I am ready to eat crow on 3rd November.
