The screenshot below shows what is happening for the next session. I included notification to save most of the day’s light of Europe and UK on Sunday, head of ICYMI Justin:
If you trade European and/or UK markets, you may need to adjust your local start/end.
Focal points for today are information from the official PMIS for March, March. Both construction and non-construction are expected to show slight improvement from February.
Looking at the recent history:
Manufacturing PMI:
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July 2024: The manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, a slight shortage of 0.1 from June, indicates marginal contraction in manufacturing activity.
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August 2024: The index fell to 49.1, suggesting the continuous contraction in the manufacturing sector in the index.
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September 2024: PMI improved in 49.8, reached the extension range but still indicated a little contraction.
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October 2024: The index reached 50.1, crossing into the expansion area, reflects a slight recovery in manufacturing activity.
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November 2024: PMI increased to 50.3, marked the highest reading since April and indicated a continuous expansion in the manufacturing sector.
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December 2024: The index declined slightly to 50.1%, maintaining its position above the threshold, thus running, although the minor, indicates expansion.
- January 2025: In December 2024, China’s manufacturing PMI from 50.1 to 49.1, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. This decline was partially attributed to the lunar New Year holiday, during which many workers returned to their hometown, which reduced the production capacity. Additionally, new orders and production sub-information also experienced decline, which reflects weak demand and production.
- February 2025: China’s manufacturing PMI in January indicates a return to expansion in manufacturing sector, above 49.1. These results combine with non-construction PMI for the month (see below) means a temporary stabilization in the Chinese economy, although challenges such as trade stress and internal structural adjustment persist.
Non-construction PMI:
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July 2024: Non-construction PMI was at 50.2, a deficiency of 0.3 from June, indicates marginal expansion in non-construction sector.
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August 2024: The index fell to 49.6, indicating a contraction in non-construction activities.
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September 2024: PMI rebound at 50.9, returning to the expansion area.
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October 2024: The index has come down to 50.6, which indicates the slow pace of expansion.
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November 2024: PMI further reduced 50.0, suggested stagnation in non-construction activities.
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December 2024: The index to 52.2, reflecting a remarkable recovery and expansion in the non-construction sector.
- January 2025: Non-construction PMI, which covers services and construction sectors, decreased by 50.2 in January, from 52.2 in the previous month, suggested recession in development. The service sector, in particular, was affected by the duration of the holiday, which reduced business activity and employment challenges. Despite the recession, the index remained above the 50-point threshold, which indicates extended, at a constant, slower.
- February 2025: Non-construction PMI increased from 50.2 to 50.4, which suggests a slight increase in services and construction activities.
From March, informal, Caxin, PMIS will follow later in the week. More on the difference between these two sets of PMI below.
PMIS (Purchasing Manager Index) from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Caxin/S&P Global is mainly different. Survey scope, functioning, and focusHere is the breakdown of major differences:
1. Provider and affiliation
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NBS PMI,
- compiled by National statistics bureauA government agency.
- As seen Official PMIFinely aligned with government policies and priorities.
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Caixin/S & P Global PMI,
- compiled by Caxin media in collaboration with S&P Global,
- A private-field index, often considered more market-operated.
2. Scope of survey
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NBS PMI,
- focuses on Large and state -owned enterprises,
- Cover a wide range of industries, including manufacturing and non-construction sectors (eg, construction and services).
- Government policies and infrastructure expenses reflect situations in areas affected.
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Caxin PMI,
- focuses on Small medium size enterprise (SME)Especially in the private sector.
- Capture the performance of companies that are exposed to market-operated forces and are less affected by state interventions.
3. Sample size and composition
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NBS PMI,
- Size of large sample, with 3,000 enterprises Survey for manufacturing PMI.
- The state emphasizes the enterprises and large companies that dominate traditional industries.
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Caxin PMI,
- Small sample size, survey around 500 enterprisesWith a strong attention Export-oriented and technology-operated firm,
- Provides its accountability for insight and global economic conditions in the private sector.
4. Release dates
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NBS PMI,
- Monthly, commonly released Last day of month,
- Provides separate PMI for Production And Non-construction sector,
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Caxin PMI,
- A few days later, commonly released On the first commercial day of next month,
- Only includes Manufacturing PMI And Services PMIThere is no equivalent for non-construction activities like construction.
5. Explanation and use
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NBS PMI,
- The overall economic scenario reflects the trend in industries affected by the government’s policy.
- Analysts use it to measure the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on a broad economy.
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Caxin PMI,
- Viewed as a better indicator of health private sector And the market-driven section of the economy.
- Is considered more sensitive to External shock (Eg, global business conditions).
6. Major insights and differences in results
- NBS PMI Often reflects Policy-driven stabilityShowing low instability as it covers areas cured by government support.
- Caxin PMI May be more ConversionAs SMEs are more sensitive to market demands, supply chain disruption and real -time changes in global economic changes.
Why both talk:
- NBS PMI China’s state-affected economy provides a comprehensive economic approach.
- Caxin PMI Provides a micro economic perspective of more market-intensive and globally competitive sectors.
By analyzing both, investors and policy makers can get a more comprehensive picture of China’s economic health and its inherent dynamics.
