- East +1.7%
- Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y preliminary
- East +2.2%
There were no changes to the initial estimates, with country details seen below. The main sticking point remains services inflation, seen at 3.4% in February. This is slightly up from January’s 3.2%, confirming more stubborn price pressures in general. Food price inflation also reached 2.5% and has remained at this level since October last year.
Even before the latest energy price (especially natural gas) surge in Europe amid the US-Iran conflict, the mix of the two still keeps the ECB very cautious. The latest developments have now tipped the balance of the scales in favor of a rate hike later this year.
At the moment, the ECB is still somewhat dismissive of that idea but you can bet they’ll be keeping their options open. Especially not to repeat the same “momentary” mistake they made in 2021-22.
