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On Saturday, Gazans in Deir al-Balah will vote to elect new local leaders for the first time in 22 years – a move experts warn could allow Hamas to maintain influence as it refuses to comply with ceasefire disarmament terms.
“When you hold elections in the Palestinian Authority and the timing is not right and the conditions are still difficult, you get a victory for Hamas,” Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
Schanzer said that the Bush administration’s 2006 decision to advocate elections, “led to Hamas’s victory, and that led to a stalemate, which led to civil war,” adding, “When it comes to holding elections especially in an area like Gaza, where Hamas has so much control, and where terrorist organizations are still considered legitimate players, you have to be really careful.”
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Election campaign banners showing candidates for the upcoming municipal elections are hung on a building in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, on April 21, 2026. On April 25, voters will select representatives in cities, towns and villages across the West Bank, the first such election in which part of the Gaza Strip will go to the polls since the war began in October 2023. (Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images)
Four parties are contesting the elections in Deir al-Balah. To be eligible, candidates were asked to accept the terms of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the agreements it had previously made, including recognition of the state of Israel and support of a two-state solution, the Center for Peace Communications reported.
However, many are concerned that one party, Deir al-Balah Unites Us, is affiliated with Hamas. Two of its candidates are depicted with Hamas officials or police officers.
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, posted on “And they should be prevented from moving forward, because they are interfering with the peace board’s transition process.” [National Council for the Administration of Gaza]And the international community has a plan for Gaza, in which Hamas’s disarmament and relinquishment of power are essential first steps.”
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Disarmament of Hamas, a key demand of President Donald Trump’s phase two ceasefire agreement, has not yet been accomplished. Reports indicate that Hamas has expanded its hold in Gaza as of March, continuing to tax locals, build up the education system and deploy police throughout the territory it holds.
Hamas militants stand guard in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip during the handover of hostages under a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange agreement with Israel on February 22, 2025. (Hatem Khalid/Reuters)
Shenzer says Hamas is unlikely to hand over its weapons. If they had to do so, he said they would “try to differentiate between weapons,” possibly offering to drop heavier weapons like RPGs while maintaining a larger arsenal of automatic weapons.
Hamas appears to have offered partial disarmament. The New York Times reported on April 19 that two Hamas officials said they would hand over thousands of weapons from their police force and other security institutions. Officials “did not give a clear answer” when asked whether weapons from Hamas’s so-called military wing would be involved.
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President Donald Trump signed an agreement during a summit of world leaders focused on ending the Gaza war in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt on October 13. (Suzanne Plunkett/Getty Images)
Schanzer rejected claims that Hamas’s political and military branches operate separately. “It’s a fantasy. The idea that they’re somehow separated or that there’s a firewall between them is silly.” He said this is “a distinction created by the West to create a political relationship with Hamas or to justify the elections. It is a mistake to believe that fiction.”
Shenzer said that weakening Iran could be key to reducing Hamas’s influence. He said, “The psychological impact of the loss of their top patron on the battlefield, I cannot overstate how significant that event could be.” “This will be a crushing blow to Hamas.”
An election campaign begins in Gaza’s Deir al-Balah city on April 12, 2026, as part of local elections scheduled for April 25. While posters and works regarding the election process continue in the city, citizens follow the developments closely. (Mohammed Eslayeh/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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With Israel controlling approximately 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas controlling the remaining 47%, Schanzer said that amid “a slow and steady process of Israeli victories on the ground”, “we may continue to see a decline in Hamas control”. However, he added that patience is necessary, “The United States and Israel and the enemies of the West have very different timelines. They want to wait for everyone else because they know we will want to move forward.”
The Trump administration did not respond to Fox News Digital’s questions about whether partial disarmament would meet its ceasefire terms, or whether it would take action to halt elections until there is greater stability in Gaza.
