Only 73K jobs were added to the July Nonform payroll report, which was rapidly missing 110K estimates, in the previous months with major below months :.
- May Was modified below 144,000 To 19,000 —> -125,000
- june 147,000 to 14,000 —> -133,000 was revised
The unemployment rate stood from 4.1% to 4.2% last month.
The fast amendment rejected the BLS Commissioner (“You are removed!”) Saying this with Trump:
The reality is 818,000-revision downwards Was announced by Bureau of Labor Statistics August 21, 2024 – Not on 15 November just after the election. This indicates an early benchmark adjustment that shows that the payroll between March 2023 and March 2024 was overstated with that amount.
21 August… 15 November … You can do anything these days when you are President and say.
Earlier Pink Slip was also given on Truthsial (or was declared to the world).
,Major mistake“Was really not one Mistake But an amendment of data, which is mainly due to the nuances of the data collection. I spoke to issues and possible solutions in this post.
Apart from the US Jobs report, other data was not particularly good. Construction was an estimate -0.4% vs. 0.0% estimate. ISM manufacturing was low at 48.0 vs 49.5. Finally, the University of Michigan University’s spirit 61.8 to 61.8 with inflation from 1 year to 4.4% from the initial to 4.5%, but the five -year inflation dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%.
Like it was not enough, the President. Trump announced that he was making a position of American nuclear submarines in “appropriate areas”, just if a foolish inflammatory statements from Medvedev of Russia are just more than that. I think it is like sending it to LA in the National Guard, but on a large scale.
That sub -and 1 August tariff was set to 35% with Canada rate and 39% with Switzerland – which reduced the stock. The Nasdaq index fell -2.24%. Russell 2000 also fell more than -2.03% to more than -2%. Major index for the week also closed down
The US Yield transferred a rapid low (high of value) as a result of weak data with a two -year down -23.7 basis digits. The market is pricing in September cuts, which is determined before the end of one and one year. The 5 -year yield fell by 20.5 base points, and 10 years -14.4 base points fell to 4.215% -its lowest rate since April 28.
The US dollar progressed rapidly on the negative side with USDJPY Down -2.26% (which helped in JPY to protect). The dollar -1.5% vs. EUR and -1.00% vs. fell from CHF. Vs other major currencies:
- CAD -0.49%
- AUD -0.65%
- NZD -0.49%
- GBP -0.55%
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW Tracker was revised for an increase of 2.1% to Q3, which combines signs of a slow economy.
Fedes Waller and Boman on Wednesday explained their decisions for lesser rates for lower rates in FOMC rate judgment for low rates (Fed should not be neutral and restrictive), and was demolished by data today.
Fed’s bustick placed a rigid upper lip in relation to his estimates for a cut in 2025, but admitted that risks were slanting back towards inflation and equality for employment, and would have to re -evaluate them given the new data.
Fed’s Kugler announced that she would withdraw from her post on August 8 as a governor, which explains her absence “for personal reasons” on Wednesday. It also gives the President. Trump is the opportunity to appoint a new – more dovish – fed governor (perhaps hassett?).
Meanwhile, European and Swiss authorities expressed disappointment over the US tariffs, and the White House confirmed that Switzerland refused to progress on trade obstacles.
At the end of this week, the eyes will convert to Sunday’s expected OPEC+ production guidance. The rumors were that they would increase production by 549,000 BPD. Oil prices fell from $ 2.00 to $ 67.25.
Thank you for your support this week. have a good weekend.
