Iran’s Khatam-al Anbia headquarters announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to all maritime traffic. The military headquarters has cited US violations of the ceasefire agreement and non-disengagement in Lebanon as well as Israeli ceasefire violations. He warned that this was only a “first step”. The Revolutionary Guard made a similar statement yesterday.
A less discussed risk is that Iran may continue to fight. With Trump openly admitting that the oil situation will get much worse in four weeks, he has this tremendous advantage right now. They may also understand that the US will never stay in the current agreement as Trump faces criticism even from his strongest supporters, so it is better to fight now than later. This also seems to be an opportunity to crack down on US-Israel relations, which would be a big win for them.
On the other hand, it is hard to imagine that Iran will ever get a better deal than the one it is getting now, so Iran’s politicians – who possibly also fear for their lives – are trying to persuade them to take the deal.
Ultimately, however, there is a so-called ceasefire in Lebanon that is constantly being broken by all sides and it is hard to imagine that this agreement will ever work because of that. Israel says it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon and Iran’s military command insists this is a precondition.
On the US side, Trump seems desperate to find a way out and Witkoff and Kushner are in Switzerland. VP Vance said he expected to visit Switzerland “in the next few days” and was confident they could maintain the ceasefire.
At the moment, the question is whether Iran will attempt to enforce this latest ‘closure’ of the Strait of Hormuz by military means. WTI closed nearly $1 higher on Friday despite the announcement of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.
UPDATE: The Iran negotiating team is still on its way to Switzerland and a spokesperson said: “Our focus is to demand accountability regarding the other side’s commitments and to make clear how they plan to meet them. If any part of their commitments remains unfulfilled, the entire MOU will be in trouble.”
