NewNow you can listen to Fox News articles!
As anti-regime protests continue across Iran and questions swirl about the durability of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule, a central question arises: who will actually take power if the Islamic Republic collapses?
According to regional experts and Iranian opposition figures, the answer is not clear. This may depend less on ideology than on how the regime falls and Iran’s security forces crumble or survive.
Fall matters as much as succession
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the important thing is not whether the regime collapses, but how it happens.
Iran on the verge of danger, protesters demand capture of two cities, appeal to Trump
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks after casting his vote for the presidential election in Tehran, Iran on July 5, 2024. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
“Despite being supreme leader, one has to wonder, especially after the war and with limited public appearances, how directly Khamenei is controlling the country’s affairs,” Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. He warned Western governments against supporting cosmetic change that merely reshuffles the elite.
“One thing I fear is the Western temptation for a Maduro-type or Egypt-type model,” he said, referring to scenarios in which strong security forces retain power under new leadership. “This would simply be a game of musical chairs at the top and would not provide a path to meaningful change for the Iranian people.”
Ben Taleblu argued that Iran’s opposition faces more of a logistical challenge than an ideological one: transforming sustained street protests into organized political power before security forces can re-establish control.
Special forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) walk under a US flag during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, also known as Jerusalem Day, in Tehran, Iran on March 28, 2025. (Morteza Nicoubzal/Nurfoto via Getty Images)
Decisive role of security forces
Many experts agreed that Iran’s future depends on whether the regime’s repressive apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia, and the regular army, remains intact.
Ben Taleblu said the key factor is whether sections of the security forces defect, refuse orders or are fragmented. “What must be dismantled is the coercive power of the regime,” he said, adding that change will require sustained protests, economic strikes and a crackdown within security forces.
Analysts warn that without it, Iran could see a scenario in which clerical key figures would disappear but real power would remain in the hands of armed institutions.
“That’s the fear,” Ben Taleblu said. “If the state plays musical chairs, the road won’t settle for it. That means there’s a bumpy road ahead.”
Trump says US will intervene if Iran starts killing protesters: ‘Shut up and down’
Members of the Basij paramilitary force hold the Iranian flag, the Lebanese flag, the flag of the Hashd Shaabi, the flag of the Quds Force’s Fatemiyoun Brigade and the flag of Lebanon’s Hezbollah during a rally commemorating International Quds Day, also known as Jerusalem Day, in downtown Tehran on April 14, 2023. (Morteza Nicoubzal/Nurfoto via Getty Images)
Can the army take over power?
Some analysts point to historical precedents, including in Egypt, where the military stepped in amid unrest. Iran expert Benny Sabti of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies said a military-led transition could not be ruled out, but would be catastrophic.
“IRGC generals could theoretically attempt a coup,” Sabati told Fox News Digital. He stressed that Iran’s military institutions are not monolithic. He distinguished between the IRGC, which he described as an ideological and asymmetric force, and the regular army, which he said was more professional and nationally oriented.
Sabti highlighted former armed forces chief Habibullah Sayyari as an example of an individual who has limited criticism from within the system. Nevertheless, he cautioned that criticism alone does not make one a leader and said that charisma matters a lot in Iranian politics.
Protests intensify in Iran for the 12th day. (National Resistance Council of Iran)
“There is a problem of charisma,” Sabati said. “In Iran, it is very important.”
Political prisoners and international leaders
Despite international attention to jailed activists, experts remain skeptical that Iran’s next political leadership will emerge from within the country’s prison system.
Ben Taleblu said decades of repression have made it almost impossible to develop political leadership inside Iran. “What will come from within are the forces of revolution,” he said. “Political leadership will have to be built from the outside.”
Sabati echoed that idea, saying the freed prisoners would likely become part of a broader system rather than key leaders.
He said, “No leader will come out of jail.” “They will be part of a new order, but not charismatic leaders.”
Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi holds a press conference in Paris on June 23, 2025. (Joel Saget/AFP via Getty Images)
Exiled opposition and the Pahlavi question
Reza Pahlavi’s supporters say he is emerging as a focal point of opposition mobilization amid growing unrest. On January 8, Pahlavi publicly called on Iranians to chant from their homes or on the streets at 8 pm and his aides said large crowds responded in several cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Tabriz.
People close to Pahlavi describe him as an advocate of a secular, democratic Iran committed to human rights, while rejecting claims that he wants to restore the monarchy. Pahlavi has repeatedly said that the shape of Iran’s future system should be decided by the people through an independent constitutional process.
“My role is not to create an environment in favor of monarchy or republic,” Pahlavi said. “I will remain completely impartial in the process to help ensure that Iranians ultimately have the right to choose freely.”
Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and “Iran So Far Away” editor of Substack, told Fox News Digital that Pahlavi is the only viable unifier capable of guiding a transition, a view strongly contested by others in the diaspora.
Iran’s actions roil the Middle East as analysts see fewer US options for military intervention
“The only person who can see this is the crown prince,” Zand said, arguing that any prominent figure inside Iran would be swiftly eliminated by the regime. He rejected alternative opposition leaders as lacking legitimacy within the country.
Zand said chants supporting Pahlavi during recent protests reflect genuine sentiment, not fabrication, although it is difficult to independently verify such claims amid internet shutdowns and state censorship.
Some experts caution that although Pahlavi has visibility in the West and among parts of the Iranian public, he remains a polarizing figure, especially among Iranians wary of the monarchy or outside influence.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Maryam Rajaev in Ashraf-3 in Albania on May 16, 2022. (NCRI)
Rajvi and organized opposition groups
Another long-standing opposition movement, the Maryam Rajavi-led Mujahideen-e Khalq, has received support over the years from some senior US political figures, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rudy Giuliani.
In a statement to Fox News Digital, Rajavi said that change “will not come from outside Iran, nor will it be brought about by the will of foreign capital,” arguing that only an organized, nationwide resistance can overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Rajavi pointed to Iran’s People’s Mojahedin Organization and its “resistance units” as the main force behind the recent uprisings, claiming they have played a decisive role in organizing protests and confronting security forces at the cost of heavy casualties. He said the National Resistance Council of Iran does not seek power for itself, but instead proposes a six-month provisional period following the overthrow of the regime, culminating in free elections for a Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution for a democratic, secular republic.
NCRI’s newly elected chairperson Maryam Rajavi is standing with former Vice President Mike Pence. (NCRI)
“Once established, all powers will be transferred to the assembly that will select the provisional government and draft the constitution of the new republic,” Rajavi said. “Gender equality in all aspects, separation of religion and state, autonomy for Iranian Kurdistan and many other urgent matters have been approved in detail by the NCRI.”
Rajavi also cited widespread international support for NCRI’s platform. Critics and analysts interviewed by Fox News Digital disputed the level of support for the group inside Iran. Sabti said the MEK’s history of violence in the 1980s and its harsh ideology have alienated young Iranians.
Speaking at an NCRI conference in Washington DC last November, Pompeo hit back at critics, saying, “Iran will have a thriving, democratic, popular government – not a theocracy, not a monarchy, not a repressive regime. That would be a great thing for the whole world. We look forward to that day, and it will be a blessing to all of us.”
Ben Taleblu warned Western governments against “playing favorites” among exile factions, saying that legitimacy must ultimately come from inside Iran.
In this screen grab from a social media video released on January 9, 2026, protesters gather while burning vehicles amid anti-government unrest in Tehran, Iran. (Via social media/Reuters)
No clear successor and a long road ahead
Despite intense speculation, experts agree on one point: There is no clear successor waiting in the wings.
“We are not there yet,” Sabati said, noting that Khamenei is alive, and security forces were unharmed.
Ben Taleblu described this moment as a marathon rather than a sprint, and warned against simplistic narratives about the collapse of the regime.
Click here to download Fox News App
“This is about paving the best path for a post-Islamic Republic Iran,” he said, “so that the forces of revolution inside can finally become voters and choose their own destiny.”
